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Orange Juice!


May peace be with you!


Day after day I'm more confused
Yet I look for the light in the pouring rain
You know it's a game that I hate to lose
I'm feelin' the strain, ain't it a shame

(Dobie Gray)

Well friends, it's about that time. Another week of madness and mayhem is in the books and we can finally shift our attention to the important things in life. For my part, I've chosen to pass on N' Awlins because, quite honestly, I need to rest my bones and recharge my batteries. Regardless, you can be sure that I'll be decked out in orange as I root for my alma mater to bring home the bacon. Get up Carmello!

It was a constructive week for the boyz from Matador City and they'll power down with the confidence that only higher prices can provide. Tech did trade heavy today but, as of this post, it held that NDX 1045 level that the backwards dandruff crowd was looking at. If the weekend news out of Iraq is "good," we'll probably walk into another gap opening and it will seem "obvious." Of course and unfortunately, that outcome isn't guaranteed.

It seems as if every overnight session has become a binary event for the stock market. It's a certainly a frustrating way to trade but we've gotta play the hand we're dealt regardless of how shuffled the deck is. Gone are the days where a simple assimilation of the trading metrics yield a discernable edge. Yes, they absolutely matter, but with "event-risk" both ways it's hard to have uber-confidence in either camp.

For my part, I'm powering down with that lone leg in my bear costume (25% conviction on the short side) and a little more respect for the beast. While we find our way, I want to carry my May "underneath" puts overnight and set up some gamma during the day. I'm unsure of the timing (timing is everything) but I continue to believe that the musical chairs will break a leg. The truth is that the allocation rotation trade (dollar, crude, bonds, stock) will continue until it doesn't. In the meantime, the Minx seems content to shrug off nasty economic numbers, earnings worries or geopolitical risk.

I've put my best foot forward while trying to digest the insanity and I hope it's added value at some level. As I said earlier, our trading mojo, like everything else, is cyclical. I haven't played to the top of my game the last few weeks, but the mechanics of the swing are more important of the results of the at bat. Over the course of time, consistency and discipline will differentiate our results and we must honor thy process.

Regardless, it's important to remember who we are and why we're here. There's a lot of bad energy in this world and if we let them get us down -- if we let them alter our energy -- then they've won the battle. As my buddy Joel used to say, live well, laugh more and love much. And take care of you -- it all starts within.

Have a peaceful weekend.
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