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Random Thoughts


I don't think Linda from Ridgemont is all that!


  • I'm having the great debate over sushi with my good friends John Roque and Rick Schottenfeld. You should see Fokker's face -- pure bewilderment.

  • A lot of "smart" guys are predicting that we make a marginal new high (false breakout at S&P 910) and then roll over. If enough people are thinking that, chances are we're not going to get to S&P 910 or we're gonna power through it.

  • Rumor has it that Daisy got a belly ring. This hasn't been confirmed, it's just the chatter on the street.

  • Yes, I am frustrated too. I strive for balance and perspective but that doesn't mean this market doesn't frustrate me. I've learned through the years, however, that trading mojo is cyclical. There will be times when you can see the seams on the ball and other times when you feel like a dope. The key is to manage the emotional variance. Don't beat yourself up too much when you lose and don't get too "high" when you win.

  • When I see an actionable trade, I don't always pull the trigger. Sometimes I put it on the laundry list and watch its price action for a bit.

  • The N's feel like they want to go lower, the S's feel like they want to go higher. I feel like I want to go home!

  • Did you know that everything you write on IM can be monitored by big brother?

  • When the S&P retested 850, we spoke about the potential for a pop before the drop. Remember? The whole "bottoms are points and tops are processes" convo? The script is still being written but I wanted to remind you of that chat.

  • BKX 745 is the 200-day moving average.

  • The NDX has breached the gap from Wednesday's morning. If it fills, it works to NDX 1025ish.

  • My big Friday night plans? Locking my door, turning off the phone, cracking a bottle of wine and throwing on the Spaceballs DVD. My how times have changed!

  • I like talking to big-picture bulls -- you ALWAYS want to know what the other side of your trade is thinking.

  • If I was as thin as this market, I'd never have to go to the gym.

  • A bullish phase, if and when, does nothing to change my big picture Double-D thesis (derivatives and deflation) or the flatliner thesis. Am I too bearish? There will absolutely be many times in the years ahead when it would appear so -- but looks can be deceiving.

  • The irony of the above situation if it comes to fruition? We're all gonna suffer -- even the bears.

  • Alright. If I get one more "penis enlargement" junk email, I'm gonna lose my mind.

  • Boo pranced into my office just now with Linda from Ridgemont High. Biscuit!

  • What's conventional wisdom right now? A prolonged bear or an eventual recovery?

  • Watch China as a potential growth engine in the years ahead.

  • It's better to take a trade too early than too late.

  • I used to love fishsticks as a kid.

  • Who is buying the dollar?

  • There's a difference between consumer debt and consumer demand.

  • Watch the financials into the last couple of hours as a leadership tell.

  • The price action in MO is astounding.

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