By Todd Harrison Apr 30, 2004 11:30 am
Papa needs a new pair of shoes!
Carry on my wayward son
There'll be peace when you are done
Lay your weary head to rest
Don't you cry no more
The Friday fray is underway and after my requisite meal meeting (five for five this week), I've settled into the thrilly 'Ville. The morning action is shockingly choppy (yes, I am kidding) as the hedge fund hot potato mashes and thrashes. Goldman Sachs stole the early show with a massive S&P seller and once that order "got around," bids dried up faster than a fig. Now, as weary traders start the collective countdown, a two-sided picture has started to emerge.
Hoofy, rubbin' his arse, has noted the semicap jig (KLA-Tencor (KLAC:NASD) and piggies that are tryin' to get jiggy. He's also been quick to point out the short-term pressy nature that existed this morning. It didn't matter yesterday (after Wednesday's QQQ press) and the anecdotal evidence (and small sample) must be weighed against the continued long-term giddiness that exists (sentiment surveys). As a matter of fact, as I pound my keyboard, that very same gorilla just sold his first 10,000 QQQ puts out. Serendipity.
Boo, undeterred, walked into work today and handed out backpacks. "If we're gonna take the other side of the Carrie trade," he mused, "we're gonna need plenty of luggage!" In addition to the macro crosscurrents (which are often difficult to discern), he's watching the Cisco disco (down 3%), internets fret (Yahoo (YHOO:NASD)) and biotech (down 1% despite a jiggy Biogen Idec (BGEN:NASD). He's also talking about finally being able to afford new Birkenstocks but that's a story for another time.
Breadth is balanced, the dollar flat, bonds higher (alleviating some equity pressure) and the metals are trying to get their groove on (silver +4%). The bulls, who are encouraged by the semis ability to hold SOX 450, would love to see Citigroup (C:NYSE) take the baton and lead by example. The bears, who have been on the wrong side of the whoop ass can for a long time, are lickin' their chops and looking for sweet (and prolonged) revenge.
It's been a stressful week but there's only four hours left until a well deserved two-day requisite respite. The choices you make will be the risk profile you sleep with, so splash some water on your face, eat a Snickers bar, do some breathing exercises--whatever it takes--just keep your focus and remain lucid. With a little luck and a lot of discipline, we'll dance into the weekend with a smile on our puss and some jingle in our jeans.
As always, I hope this finds you well.
position in qqq, silver, c
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