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Hedge Hog

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If you can't be with the tape you love, love the friends you're with!

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The wheel is turning and you can't slow down
You can't let go and you can't hold on
You can't go back and you can't stand still
If the thunder don't get you then the lightening will


(Grateful Dead)


Well Minyans, as we edge through the final moments of April's trading, it's almost time to turn the page and begin a new chapter. It's been a wild month, that's for sure, and when the dust settles, Hoofy will have earned the right to strut his butt. Giving credit where credit's due, the bulls showed up and made a stand and for that, they've been rewarded. Congrats!

I suppose the fact that the horizon appears to be clear is the very reason I'm reticent to believe it is. It's been too cautious of an approach as our metric assimilation HAS improved, but when push comes to shove, I'm still afraid of equity love.

It remains to be seen if the fundamental uptick is sustainable and if the quick end to the war will offer the panacea that so many are hoping for. Personally, I fear that this rally is gonna zing (hurt) more than the previous head fakes but, as always, that's simply one trader's (most humble) opinion.

In the meantime, the Minxy musical chairs continues as the beast has (thus far) shrugged off the drab dollar and is dancing to the trippy tunes. Tech in general (and the semis in particular) have yet to lace up their shoes, but with a little more than an hour left in the session, there's plenty of time for some month-end price action (both ways). Outside of the dollar, it's just another day at the rodeo: The internals are firm, the banks are flirting with BKX 800, the Dow Jones is testing 8521 (again) and traders, by and large, are anxious.

Chubb (CB:NYSE), Cirrus Logic (CRUS:Nasdaq) and OSI Systems (OSIS:Nasdaq) will report tonight while Exxon Mobil (XOM:NYSE), Hercules (HPC:NYSE), Liz Claiborne (LIZ:NYSE) and USA Interactive (USAI:Nasdaq) (among others) will release earnings tomorrow morning.

Not to be forgotten, Monsieur Beeks will swing by tomorrow with Nonfarm Productivity (expected at 2.0%), Initial Jobless Claims (expected at 430k), Construction Spending (expected at .2%) and the I to the ISM Manufacturing number (expected at 47.2, prices paid 65).

I'm gonna hop home with my lone leg in the fur (25% conviction on the short side) and a smattering of June cheapie puts on the sheets. My dilemma, as it has been, is one of timing. While I can't point to a catalyst, I'll sleep better knowing I've got some underneaths on. As always, should I have bullish inclinations during the day, I can rent exposure and offset some of my delta risk.

We'll be announcing the lineup of University professors tomorrow and I'm admittedly psyched to spill the beans. Minyanville was created as an educational concern with a philanthropic bent and this is a huge step in the right direction. Our goal has never been quantity -- it's always been quality -- and I trust you'll find this to be consistent with those beliefs. Huge snaps to Casey, Snoop and C.A for the behind the scenes work. They're more than my fellow Minyans -- they're my family.

Have a peaceful night.

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