Is it duck season or wabbit season?
Fed Chairman Elmer Greenspan paints the taped with some muted economic comments and the early jig (led by the financials) has shluffed a bit.
I, for one, expected our bespeckled pal to be decidedly more upbeat but, after beginning his text with a statement saying that "the economy is positioned to expand at a noticeably better pace," he tempered his enthusiasm. "Lingering business caution could be an impediment to improved economic performance." He added that the "timing and extent of that improvement remains uncertain," and noted the "possibility that lingering business caution could be an impediment to improved economic performance."
At the same time, in case you were busy, the Chicago PMI came in a tad soft (47.6 vs. 48.9). So you know!
The dollar dipped anew on Greenie's comments and the S&P's immediately tested the all-important 910 level. It's a zone that's held the last few sessions AND it's the trendline support from the March lows (yes, those lows). Factor those inputs vs. the month end unknowns and we have the makings of an interesting afternoon.
Pre-Elmer, the jig in the financials stood out like a green thumb. I asked my buddy John Rouque if the specter of accounting irregularity (Tyco (TYC:NYSE)) mattered at BKX 800 (vs. BKX 650). It was a hypothetical question, of sorts, but it will be interesting to see if it does. We haven't smelled cooked books in a while and it'll be a good psychological tell to see if the shrugs and hugs continue.
Retail and semis stand out as relative underperformers while energy, metals and (thus far) brokers are firm. The breadth, is skewed to the negative (it's early) and bonds have ticked up. While I'm acutely aware that the Minx WANTS to trade higher, I'm keeping that leg in the costume and trading around some cheap and cheaper paper.
In quick Minyanville news, click here if you want to check out the all-star guitar! Also, we'll be announcing the initial lineup for the University of Minyanville professors tomorrow and the first Minyan who can name five of our coming teachers will win a free Minyanville tee! Send your answers to mailto:firstname.lastname@example.org and good luck!
As always, I hope this finds you well.
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