Buzz Bits: Markets End Mixed
Your daily Buzz highlights...
Flashback! - Bill Meehan - 3:33 PM
This day in market history...
- Closing levels 9 years ago
- DJIA: 6,517.01
- Naz: 1,213.76
- S&P 500: 750.32
- Crude: 19.45
- Gold: 348.75
This day in Minyanville history...
- In '03, Toddo looked at his four metrics in Honest Questions
In other news...
- In 1996, Ted Kaczynski was arrested by FBI agents in a wilderness cabin near Lincoln, Montana. He's better known as the Unabomber.
Afternoon Stock Watch - MV News - 2:58 AM
- Acuity Brands (AYI) increased its stock buyback by 2 million, or 4.5%, of its shares outstanding; up 2.2%.
- Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) downgraded to equal weight from overweight by Lehman Brothers, cited concern about rising competition; up .8%.
- AK Steel Holding (AKS) agreed to a settlement with the U.S., Ohio and two citizen groups, resolving claims that discharges from Middletown, Ohio steel plant pose a threat to health and the environment and violated federal and state environmental laws and regulations, the Department of Justice said; up 1.5%.
- Foundation Coal Holdings (FCL) Chairman William Macaulay resigned and President and Chief Executive James Roberts took chairman's post; up 1.5%.
- Mossimo (MOSS) being bought by Iconix Brand Group (ICON) for $7.50 a share, or $119 million, in cash and stock, also extended its licensing agreement with Target (TGT); up more than 39%.
- Sony Corp.'s (SNE) Sony Pictures Home Entertainment unit said it will start movie Internet downloads on April 3; up 2.5%.
- Terex (TEX) lifted Q1 earnings outlook to $1.20 a share and 2006 forecast to $5.85 to $6.35 a share; up 9.4%
- Triarc (TRY) which franchises Arby's restaurants, reported Q4 net loss widened to $16.2 million from $3.6 million; said operating profit from its restaurant business fell due to expenses; up .33%
- Tupperware Brands (TUP) up more than 5%, helped by a report in Barron's saying stock could get boost as food-storage company enters higher-margin beauty-goods business.
- Watsco (WSO) increased its quarterly dividend 25% to 25 cents a share; up .25%.
Rally hats still on? - Rod David - 1:20 PM
This morning's high was met at SPX 1307.50 (ESm 1316'00) while MACD and RSI diverged negatively. A higher high was quickly rejected. But the noon hour only ranged narrowly while MACD and RSI deteriorated further. Price momentum has been correcting without price dropping, which is a form of a correction that allows the rally to resume.
The noon hour's low was tested after the top of the hour while RSI diverged positively. That makes a decline tougher to produce. But it doesn't signal that this morning's rally has resumed, and it won't resume if the noon hour's lows aren't recovered through the bottom of the hour.
Currency Events - Kevin Depew - 11:05 AM
According to an item on the Thomson Financial news wires, European Union finance ministers said they support China's gradual approach to its foreign exchange reform.
This directly contrasts with US policy stance as outlined by Treasury Secretary John Snow, and more recently by Senators Charles Schumer and Lindsey Graham who went to China in March and vocally pressed for a speedier revaluation of the yuan. Snow has said the U.S. believes China may be artificially depressing the yuan's value to spur exports, exacerbating the U.S. trade gap.
Meanwhile, according to the Thomson item, EU officials are concerned that an abrupt rise of the Chinese yuan would depress the dollar and spark a sharp euro advance.
So put me on a highway
And show me a sign
And take it to the limit one more time... - Todd Harrsion - 10:55 AM
With the indices up sharply across the board (save the homies and biotechs), the obvious question on the lips of the critters is: what now? Market breadth has improved to 2:1, the financials are starting to step up and the widely anticipated inflows seem to be, well, flowin'.
For my part, after punting the lion's share of my long inventory into these exact levels, I haven't done much in the way of risk augmentation. S&P 1310 failed five times last month and while there was once a time I would spend all morning playing ketchup, I'm sitting tight and scanning both sides of the coin.
Yes, there was a Texas two-step trade opportunity between Thursday's meltage and today's rampage--if you were tip top, schnitz hot and second to none (sir)--but, when push comes to shove, we've seen these levels before. Trade to win--never trade not to lose--and let's focus on taking some intelligent next steps.
As always, I hope this finds you well.
Position in financials
Mini-Minyan Mailbag - Laurie McGuirk - 10:44 AM
Don't forget about Newmont's (NEM) huge Peru risk.
I still say Goldcorp (GG) is the best of breed.
Have I told you how much I hate Coeur d'Alene Mines Corp. (CDE)? I know you think it is the best silver trading stock. However, at the end of 1998, they had 23 million shares outstanding. After this 28mm offering, they now have, drum roll please, 278 million. That is an increase of 1100%.
Hi Minyan Neal,
I hear you but can one quantify what sovereign risk dollar value is?? It's certainly an issue and takes some gloss off NEM, but I can certainly quantify what close to 20 million ounces forward sold is! I agree in regards to GG - I love them but am wary of the new management. I preferred McEwen - he understood the monetary side of his business/production (note I didn't say Financial).
Yes mate - CDE is a good trading vehicle but you know I reckon their management [Australian euphemism for: "not being very good... big time."]. Your point makes mine.
Best regards as always and see you in Vail.
Position in NEM, GG
Biotech News - David Miller - 10:24 AM
As I prep for tonight's jaunt to NYC, biotech seems to be grumpy this early Monday morning. Hey! You were supposed to be up an hour ago! Some thoughts..
- Nice deal for Sirna (RNAI) this morning. Big potential dollars and equity stake above the purchase price. You'll see more of this going forward. I still find it interesting that pharma is focusing on early-stage deals instead of fixing their near-term pipeline problems.
- Drama in Chiron (CHIR) land. ISS says vote no, and that just might happen. Novartis (NVS) already owns a very large chunk of the company. If I'm the CEO of Novartis, I'd be tempted to pull the deal and sell 30-40% of my position dirty into the open market. Then come back to Chiron shareholders with the same bid after the stock is down 50-60%. Chiron is a basket-case company whose shareholders are getting a gift, but that's one man's opinion.
- AACR cancer conference is underway this week. Traditionally preclinical stuff, but more clinical data presented there every year. This is like pre-season for the ASCO conference this June.
- Vail, baby!
- Opening Day for our Mariners. Everyone has us picked last in the division. I think we have the bats this year, but our pitching... The only good thing to come of a 3rd bad season in a row would be the ejection of Hargrove as manager. Dumb hire, that was. If we're close at the All Start break, GM Bavasi will break the bank on pitching.
10 year entering that nasty area - the barf zone........... - Bennet Sedacca - 8:40 AM
Well so is the whole curve (see chart). I have been asked many questions about where I think bonds are going. Those that read my work know I am looking for 5-5.25% 10's by mid-late April. Well I have a news flash, we are already at 4.93% in 'off the run 10's.'
So we will spend the next couple of weeks monitoring sentiment, etc. to see where a good entry point might be. You may recall my piece 'What the Rest of the Year May Bring Us' on February 10th. Fortunately, bonds are following the script.
When to buy? Hard to say. I have NOT seen the 'whites of their eyes' yet. Selling is too orderly for a bottom, in my view. But that can change fast. So keep on your toes, Minyans. But those that are short - while not advice, ringing the register, getting flat and getting long is what many a trader would do. We are investors, so we sit in T Bills.
Anyway, hope that helps.
Position in various Treasury Securities
State of the Markets: Nasdaq was the leader last week - Phil Erlanger - 8:15 AM
The S&P 100 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average moved lower last week, while the NASDAQ 100 moved higher. The daily Squeezeometer signal for the NASDAQ 100 Index remains a buy as of March 27. The S&P 100 Index moved from buy to cash/speculative buy.
Our 14-day choppiness index for the NASDAQ 100 Index moved from 52 to 54. A new trend that seemed to be emerging for the NASDAQ 100 has fizzled. This index ranges from 0 to 100, and the lower it goes the more a trend is evolving. The S&P 100 choppiness index moved from 42 to 60. The recent trend to the upside may have run its course. The S&P 100 moved below its DMA channel and the NASDAQ 100 moved back above its DMA channel.
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