Grin and Bear it
Prayers from our troops to yours!
"Listen, Lupus, you didn't come into this life just to sit around on a dugout bench, did ya? Now get your ass out there and do the best you can."
--Coach Morris Buttermaker, The Bad News Bears
The gigglefest continues as the bulls kissed the 200-day moving averages (S&P, DJIA, BKX) and got beaten back down. Wouldn't ya know it, just as the action started to heat up, Hoofy walked into my office drinking a glass of champagne! I asked the dapper fella why he was celebrating and he turned to me and smiled. "Dude, if the market doesn't go down on bad news, can you imagine what she's gonna do if tomorrow's economic data is good? I'm actually thinking about playing hooky and sleeping in with Daisy. Wasabi!"
I'm not sure what to say, Hoofs, that's a tough call. Snuggling with Daisy or watching your risk during an important economic release? I'd stick with your disciplines as these are tricky times and, regardless of the previous action, the tape is fraught with two-sided risk. I know they've been acting fabu and the Minx wants to trade higher before (potentially) rolling over. My only point is that tomorrow is promised to nobody -- whether we're trading or taking a stroll through the park.
Monsieur Beeks will swing by at 8:30 a.m. EST to announce the unemployment rate (expected to be 5.9%), average hourly earnings (expected to be .2%), change in nonfarm payrolls (expected to be -35K), change in manufacturing payrolls (expected to be -38k) and average weekly hours (expected to be 34.2). After watching the market reaction to this week's soft data, the obvious risk seems to be on the upside. However, with psychology acting as the market driver (along with the structural metric), we must be on the lookout for potential straws on Elmer's back.
I'm going to power down with one leg in my metaphorical bear costume (25% conviction on the short side) and a bunch of gamma on my sheets. I know the "gamma" card isn't as telling as some Minyans would like but it's important to remember that I share my style with educational intent. I have no problem communicating my view (ya think?), but please, don't confuse it with advice. That's not why we created Minyanville and it's not what we want to become.
With THAT said, my bearish standpoint is clearly in the minority and anybody who knows me understands that I prefer it that way. I'll admit that it's a lonely existence at times but fading the masses has proven profitable over the last few years. Can this time be different? Sure, and I'm humble enough to appreciate and respect my role in the grander scheme. However, I plan on selling hope and buying despair until it stops working -- and hope currently abounds.
That's about it, my friends, as another wild session draws to a close. It ain't easy being cheesy but this is the life we've chosen and we've gotta suck it up. The best we can do is do the best we can do. So don't beat yourself up if you had a bad trading day. As long as we live our lives in a manner consistent with who we believe we are, there can be no regrets. Just be true to yourself and honest with others. Everything else will fall into place.
Have a peaceful night.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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