Don't you Just Feel like a Pony?
2:00 AM bids again?
What goes up must come down
Spinning Wheel got to go 'round
Talkin' 'bout your troubles it's a cryin' sin
Ride a painted pony let your spinning wheel spin
(Blood Sweat and Tears)
Good morning and welcome back to the ducks that quack. I stepped from the 'Ville for some biz yesterday just as Boo led his crew to an ursine buffet. The damage was done as we edged to the close but Hoofy dug deep to defend recent lows. "We're up then we're down we're all over the place," said the bull as he pulled all the egg off his face, "With month-end on tap, the ursine should brace for a run to the bell for the end-of-month race!" Will the yo-yo now bounce to shake up this chase and end the fun week with an upside embrace? Or will Hoofy now slip and fall from our grace and hang his head low in utter disgrace? It's Friday--it's freaky--you know it'll thrill so suck back some Jo' as we romp through the 'Ville!
I was traveling through Richmond, Virginia yesterday for some quickie business and missed the mess that seemed to stress. By the time I got to my screens, the flickering ticks were standing still and Hoofy ate a bitter pill. The action seemed consistent with this week's inconsistency-we've been all over the place-and, naturally, we power up this freaky pup to find the early futures pointing to Matador City. And you wonder why traders are A.D.D? It's not your fault, it's not your fault, it's not your fault...
The nuts and guts of our short-term setup remain very much in play. Multiple mainstays (S&P, NDX, DJIA, SOX, XBD, TRAN, Russell) are churning under resistance, disturbing breadth is littering our midst and near-term support (the bottom of the recent range) is edging closer. The big picture forecast got cloudier as well as sluggish growth, coupled with innate inflation, seems to drag the media towards the Stag party. I can't say it's a shocker but I also don't know what widespread acknowledgment means to the near-term psychology.
Hopping around a bit as I'm apt to do:
- Succo and I were talking housing last night and I opined to my wise buddy that the real estate mania is in the 7th inning but we could get a rainout at any time.
- As it stands, the Minyanville community is a tremendous financial appendage. Kevin and I are focusing on making it the ultimate fiscal destination. Please continue to share your thoughts on how to improve the community!
- Mr. Lewis (Lance, not Edward) offers his thoughts on our journey.
- "Silver well supported in low 6.90's again. Looking to be back at 7.12 again in quick time... probably tonight, not advice. Gold held $430 very nicely and I think needs a break below $428 spot to be worried too much... it should be way higher at present I think but the paper punters are moving it all around whilst physical buyers just sit there and soak it all up. Precious metal equities just suck, at present. No idea why, or when it will become sane again. I am again fully invested personally and actually selling some physical to buy selected metal equities, for the leverage." Laurie McGuirk on this morning's Buzz (position in gold and silver).
- After yesterday's fugliness, I would expect a probe lower to test the will of the bulls (along with S&P 1137 and NDX 1405). With that said, the "curious" 2:00 AM buying (déjà vu!) makes Boo a bit nervous.
- While it "hurts" for Americans to travel abroad, foreigners are flocking to stateside real estate. If you saw a "30% off sale!" (since 2002 as a function of dollar devaluation), you'd be psyched too!
- If you didn't read Succ's missive on the carnage in converts, please print it out and give it some respect, Mon!
- Remember that painted corner that we've been pointing to? Keep an eye on it as it becomes the full focus into Tuesday's FOMC meeting.
- I'm brimming with excitement for some of the news that's set to hit the city of critters. I've learned patience in my old age (and Fish has me on a short leash) but take me at my word. In the weeks and months ahead, things will get mighty interesting as we collectively share our journey.
I'm gonna jump and juggle and continue this struggle over on today's Buzz. There's less than eight hours until we tap into our requisite two day respite so shake it off, suck it up and sharpen your focus. There are good trading opportunities out there but this was likely a painful week if you were a half-step slow. Discipline over conviction and average over power, my friends, and let's get this party started right!
Good luck today.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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