By Todd Harrison Apr 28, 2005 8:03 am
Safe Travel Boyz!
- Yesterday's fray, despite the intraday volatility, resolved nothing with regard to our field position. We're still churning under resistance in the S&P, NDX, DJIA, BKX and XBD and, until proven otherwise, the dominant direction will run through Red Dye. The risk to this framework? As is often the case with technical analysis, the view gets "better" at higher levels, an inherent flaw that is rarely discussed.
- I'll be out of the 'Ville this morning as President Fish and I take a meeting in Richmond, Va. I'm hoping to get back in the saddle by this afternoon but Minyan Air has us arriving back in Minyanville after the close. I appreciate the latitude and assure you that we have the best interests of the 'Ville in mind.
- Key tells in my absence? The song remains the same: The internals (particularly if they skew 2:1 either way and stay that way), Goldman (GS) near $107.50ish, the rest of the rate-sensitive names (on the heels of GDP and in front of the Fed) and, of course, the semis and trannies (above recent lows).
- I've spoken to alotta traders from the old school that are throwing up their hands or hangin' up their gloves. I can't say I blame them as the "game," for lack of a better word, has lost a lot of luster. It's still exciting at times and opportunities remain but we remain in the early innings of the dandelion market. Lotsa weeding out is still to come as capacity is weaned from the industry.
- "Misery may love company, but it's our company--our relationships and human bonds--that will usher us through this misery." Todd Harrison, "Picking up the Pieces," Realmoney.com, September 16th, 2001.
- Scare tactics are not the proper motivation for fiscal literacy.
- I find myself circling back to Stephen Roach's latest missive regarding the "moral hazard" of our Fed (please print this out and spend some time chewing through the message). I've been in that camp for a long time and the coordinated agenda is a popular topic at our weekly Succofests. "Don't hate the player, hate the game" comes to mind as we collectively digest this twisted tale of misguided adventure. And while opinions should never get in the way of making money, we must remain acutely aware of what's actually going on. Conspiracy theory? Hardly...when sharp seers such as Paul Volcker offer a similar view, the absurd doesn't seem so far-fetched anymore.
- But is there "intervention?" That's a separate conversation but equally intriguing. I approach that discussion in the same vein I view extraterrestrial existence. We may never have actual proof that it exists but it would be extremely myopic to assume that it doesn't.
- There was a time that I couldn't leave the 'Ville without the energy halting. The critters and professors now form the basis of the community.
- Overhead at last night's Succofest: "Isn't it strange that Fannie Mae (FNM) was the first quack of the lame duck administration." Yes, and that dynamic seems curiously timed to the lack of lift for the mortgage giant.
- DXY 85ish--that be the dollar--is a pretty hefty resistance. Odds are, as a function of the reflation trade, that the greenback OR equities (not both) will break out to the upside. That's our corner--our choice--and it seems to be setting up coincident to the FOMC rate debate.
- "Get in your mouse and drive away." - Uncle Buck.
- "All you have is your name and your word." - Ruby Peck
- Speaking of Aunt Fannie (FNM)...
- Has the thought of a stiff upside lift entered my mind? How could it not? If you run into a brick wall long enough, you tend to condition yourself to slow down.
- Minyans in the Mountains. Santa Barbara, California August 18-21st. Mucho Grande.
- All through college, I had a massive crush on one woman. The fantastic finish to the story? Fish married her. And they have a wonderful home...
- The notion of "Flipping the Switch on the Wall Street Pitch" is one of the clearest visions I have. The reality, and based on the 'know thyself rule' is that is likely a bit down the road.
- Get to know Vitaliy, Fari and Dr. J. They're in the Minyan family for good reason.
- Herb Greenberg isn't far behind. And if your time horizon is patience, you'll likely be rewarded.
- Good luck today Minyans!
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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