By Todd Harrison Apr 28, 2004 9:15 am
Maybe Hoofy will pick up some jewlery on the cheap!
If I had a gun for every ace I've drawn
I could arm a town the size of Abilene
Don't you push me baby cause I'm moaning low
You know I'm only in it for the gold
Good morning and welcome back to the trippy track. Get ready for a Hump Day thrill as the rubber eyes the roadside kill. "The bulls have made their upside bet," Boo mumbled through a sticky sweat, "But I'm not giving in just yet or paying heed to their veiled threat!" Will Hoofy huff and puff his way to higher prices through the day? Or can the bears again betray the bovine much to their dismay? It's up, it's down, it's time to chill so punch that clock and join the 'Ville!
We've spoken at length about the near-term elements in play and the technical inflection points that exist. Tickles painted the sticky picture in our leadership groups and, from an inside out basis, they'll go a long way in determining if Hoofy can finally mount this hump. We know what to look for (volume and breadth), we understand that persistent tests remove (absorb) resistance (support) and we respect the trap door potential (as a function of the lopsided sentiment). Now we just gotta carefully walk the path and do the math.
The story within the story continues to be the persistent intramarket rotation. The energy complex has been the most obvious beneficiary (OSX and XOI) and the semis a source of funds. Be that as it may--and I continue to believe that this complex will outperform in the long run and recapture the top weighting in the S&P--the tape will be hard pressed to make progress without tech traction.
The metals are smelting this morning and folks are pointing to lethargic Newmont (NEM:NYSE) earnings. That's more of an excuse than a catalyst, in my view, as these commodities have been quite heavy of late. I'm involved in silver and have been trading around a "longer-term" position but objectively speaking, they areseemingly in need of some therapy. Once they work through some issues, however, I sense that they'll once again find their footing. Watch DXY 91 (200-day) as a contra-proxy for the metals in general.
I'm a little behind this morning as I juggle the flickering ticks with some more important issues. Still, this is mission critical and it's all hands, paws and hoofs on deck as we find our collective way. I will again remind you that the goal of trading is to identify the best opportunity per given unit of risk so if you're pressin' and guessin', take a step back and a deep breath. There are edges out there--you just gotta find 'em.
Good luck today.
position in silver, qqq
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