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Pants on Fire!

By

S&P 920 and BKX 800 are the next objects of my desire!

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Fletcher: After all that, your husband wants to deny you a fair and equitable share of the marital assets based on one single act of indiscretion.
Mrs. Cole: Seven.
Fletcher: Hmmm?
Mrs. Cole: Seven single acts of indiscretion.
Fletcher: Whatever.

--Fletcher Reade and Samantha Cole
Liar, Liar



The Wall Street settlement press conference comes and goes and the street, after taking break to watch television, has turned its attention back to the Minx. Mr. Spitzer has already gone to Washington, this we know, but what remains to be seen is the impact of the civil suits. Almost every investor is licking a wound in some fashion and after a few years of salty returns, they'll be looking to place blame. Stay tuned.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the Minyanville shuffle continues as the last week's (blink) pullback has summoned to strong underlying demand. As I make my calls around the street, the consensus is two-fold: The month-end rally will continue through Wednesday and the Minx will make a push to S&P 930ish before rolling over. While I hate conventional wisdom, I'm unable to offer you a variant thought process at present. I believe in my heart of hearts that this will ultimately prove to be (yet another) head fake but my metric assimilation, as it stands, doesn't warrant an aggressive zag.

What have I done? Taken a step back and, as discussed, I'm trading a bit smaller. I've been in this game for many years and I know that a truer feel will emerge given time. I continue to sense that volatility (in the form of out-of-the-money puts) will pay off in spades. but the timing, Mon Frere, is everything. I've said it before and I'll say it again: Identifying a time horizon is the first step in the trading process. Look at your needs and wants and deploy a strategy consistent with your thought process.

I will be attending my friend Michael's funeral tomorrow morning and, as such, I will post when I return to the office (should be around noon). While I surely have a desk full of hair follicles due to the market, a (long-coming) weekend with my Dad and the news of Mike's passing put things in perspective quickly. Make the most of your trades, Minyans, so you can make the most of your life. There's a much bigger picture out there and it should never take something bad to bring it into focus.

Fare ye well.
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