When I'm deep inside of me
Don't be too concerned
I won't ask for nothin' while I'm gone
Good morning and welcome back to the minxy track. I traditionally enjoy some literary structure to start the day but I'm taking today's fray a different way. I wanna write as it comes and put it all down, a cacophony of random thoughts and core beliefs that touch on an array of topics. These are twisty times and it sometimes helps our journey to shake up the mojo. It is with that intent that I turn up the faucet.
Capital preservation and proactive profitability are a function of the proper perspective. You know where I stand in the big picture--stuck in the middle with you. We have inflation to the left (inputs), deflation on the right (wage growth) and we must collectively choose between buoyant markets and a stable dollar. There are two solutions in my opinion--time and price-and in the absence of legitimate growth, sobriety is gonna hurt as we wean ourselves off the artificial stimuli.
In the short-term, the prognosis could improve but the bears have the ball. The Red Dye fly has followed the averages down, breaking support after support and morphing them into resistance. I respect the Minx and know that nuances are always dangerous to game. At the same time, the signs of stress are apparent (internals, multiple technical levels, big picture realization) and patience is wearing thin.
The trick to trading is the ability to capture the disconnect between perception and reality. I think we have a ways to go on our perilous path but it'll be paved with false hope and empty promises. S&P 1163, NDX 1460 and DJIA 10-4 are the obvious choices for defined upside risk although they become dangerous with widespread acceptance. Breadth, the financials (Goldman Sachs, Citigroup) and the ability to rotate (rather than migrate) will craft the critter compass.
Flipping the switch on the Wall Street pitch.
Years ago, when the JP Morgan's, Merrill Lynch's and Goldman Sachs' of the world ran the roost, the primary client motivation was execution. There were only so many channels available for the decision maker and stock orders would travel from our parents to the brokers to the traders to the pits to the traders to the brokers to our parents. The attendant benefits (research, IPO's) were added on in time but the genesis of any financial relationship was predicated on the ability to transact.
Fast forward to today. Modern technology has developed multiple trading platforms and that supply continues to grow. Witness the consolidation in the industry standards (NYSE and NASDAQ) as proof positive of shrinking margins and a changing landscape. Now factor in the dearth of IPO's and the regulatory hurdles in place. Information--by law--must be public and transferable the instant it's available.
I believe that the ability to craft an "information profile" will be the dominant demand of future investors and low cost and volume discount solutions will shift to a support role in the new age financial services firm. If this evolution bears fruit, alotta Wall Street shops are gonna find that their models have become obsolete and outdated.
At the risk of alienating our beloved critters, I wanna speak my mind on the current state of financial media. Fiscal literacy isn't a function of telling people what to do or trying to rush advice in a minute. It's about understanding the mechanism and being aware of our choices. The tension between Wall Street and Main Street will continue to grow as returns mitigate and losses mount. What we need is a better understanding and further transparency as we unravel this twisted tale of misguided adventure.
We live in a world where people are conditioned to believe what they read, see and hear. Many platforms have an agenda, however, and tend to spin the truth to fit their best interests. Ratings, advertisements and product placement have seemingly stolen the show in the race towards the bottom line. There are plenty of good folks and honest vibes out there but we must discern what's real and what is noise.
The State of the Minyan
It's been a critter adventure in the hallowed halls as we move forward with great dreams and high aspirations. Transitioning Fish into the mix is a dream come true and it ties together the Minyan family. We've got big plans for our humble community and it starts with you and grows from there. Expect to see new scribes, improved functionality and a more robust overall experience as we feature the Buzz and Banter as the center channel of finance.
Our summer milestone remains Minyans in the Mountains II in Santa Barbara the weekend of August 18-21st. We're putting together the itinerary and schedule but it's shaping up to be one humdinga of a retreat. Perhaps the "Sundance of Finance" is too aggressive but that's our goal and we're heading that way. Anyone who was at Crested Butte last year will tell you that this is a pure embodiment of the Minyanville spirit. Truly exciting stuff.
The Purpose of the Journey is the Journey itself
There's been alotta introspection for yours truly of late as I digest the important stuff and seek my elusive balance. It's hard to describe loss to someone who hasn't experienced it but that's one of life's great ironies. Wisdom is often a function of pain and we're reminded of that with each tragedy. Experience is what builds character, as I've learned, and it sometimes takes something bad to remind us that we've got it so good.
I was asked what my proudest accomplishment was while speaking at Lubin House last week. After mentally digesting the gamut of my professional path, I arrived back at September 11th. The capacity to absorb adversity and stay true to myself far outweighs any assignment conventional wisdom might bestow. At the end of our journey, the truest testament to life is being loyal to your family, good to your friends and respectful of your peers. Everything else, each and every day, is gravy.
Good luck today.
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