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Random Thoughts


Lotsa crossed signals!


  • Do you think Hoofy has milk stains on his sheets?

  • I continue to hear from my friends that the market is too "bearish." Perhaps their sample studies indicate such but be careful of extrapolating too much from this. It surely may capture the short-term "pressiness" but the bigger picture surveys (continue to) indicate (almost if not) historic levels of bullishness.

  • Beeks continues his quest for the spotlight as he swings by with consumer confidence (exp. 88.5) and existing home sales (exp. 6.2M) tomorrow.

  • The Callous Doughboys?

  • This and $4 will get you a cup of coffee.

  • The question isn't whether a marginal increase in rates "matters" (as they remain near historically low levels). The bigger question is the sheer size of the "carry trade" and the potential for a bottleneck on the unwind. Some estimate that over $150 trillion is tied up in this trade--and with the interwoven (derivative based) financial foundation as it is, one pebble could make for a helluva ripple.

  • A-Rod? A-Pril.

  • I'll do my part Herb--the "healthy eating" trade is officially "game on" in the city of pudgy critters.

  • Imclone (IMCL:NASD) and Verizon (VZ:NYSE) highlight tomorrow morning's earnings parade.

  • "I would be of help to you in your quest to understand money, if for no other reason than I would understand it myself. But I am perfectly useless, Our money has been wretched for as long as I have been alive. When it is so bad, it is no easy matter to discern when it is getting worse; but as hard as it might be to believe, this seems to be occurring." -The Confusion, Neil Stephenson

  • 61,000 people, on average, are airborne over the US in any given hour.

  • Thanks to all the Boston Minyans who stopped by for a cold one on Friday afternoon. I had a chance to hoof around the city on Saturday and left with a newfound appreciation of beantown.

  • In Hoofy's dream scenario, the VXO finally breaks 14 with moxie, the S&P busts through 1160, the NASDAQ shampoos through 2080 and a mad scramble ensues. That could, of course, be the final circle smirk for the bovine beauties but we'll cross that bridge if we ever get to it.

  • We rely on our Minyanship so if you're diggin' the 'Ville, please take the time to spread the critter word!

  • For Boo, the vision is entirely easier, more intuitive. The bevy of bearish warning signs coupled with the "carry bottleneck" will create downside violence and bovine silence.

  • In Shakespeare's time, mattresses were secured on bed frames by ropes. When you pulled on the ropes the mattress tightened, making the bed firmer to sleep on. Hence the phrase "goodnight, sleep tight." It is not clear when the bedbugs entered the picture.

  • I understand the importance of a "franchise" offensive tackle (see Jonathan Ogden) but I was admittedly disappointed when I heard of the Raiders draft choice. I am actually thinking of heading out to Oakland and volunteering for the running back position.

  • Speaking of the VXO, it's edging towards a stochastic buy signal. Not there yet but close enough to mention.

  • If you wanna read the Buzz without the auto-refresh, you can do so in the Gazette Buzz & Banter. If you have the desktop Buzz feature up (which I strongly recommend for the ultimate Minyan experience), you can hit the F5 button to refresh.

  • The semis are ticklin' the 200-day (for the third time) at SOX 476.

  • As the NDX approached 1480 support, I nibbled on some May out-of-the-money calls as an upside hedge. While I know we're never supposed to anticipate the anticipator, I figure that this is a cheap (and defined) way to protect against inverse dandruff if and when.

  • I have lunch meetings today through Wednesday so please work with me as I juggle the struggle.

  • I admittedly rushed "War Stories" on Friday as I penned it during my Boston marathon. I'll try to clean it up and balance it a bit in the days ahead.

  • Eli Manning a Giant. Berko and Matty must be psyched.

  • I read a handful of folks and watch a certain set of indicators. They are decidedly mixed...if there is such a thing.

  • SometimeS the critter content will be bursting at the seams and sometimes there just isn't a whole heckuva lot going on. Such is life.

  • I'm not impressed with this bounce in silver and have been "trading around" my position a bit. For instance, I bought a bit on the Thursday dip ($6ish) and let 'that' exposure out near today's opening ($6.24ish). I still have my original position and have room to scale should it migrate towards the 200-day ($5.87). Just sharin' my process with hopes that it adds to yours.

  • Delayed reactions (to earnings) is frustrating to those who are disciplined and sell (or cover) on the catalyst.

  • There's nothing wrong with milk stains. Seriously.

  • We'll be opening our UMV student lounge soon! It'll have 'some' same day content and will also serve as an eventual home to live interactive chats with the Minyanville professors.

  • Jeter is pressing. I still think they should move him to second and find a new third baseman.

  • There are trades for the day, trades for a catalyst and trades for a thesis. Make sure you know which one you're doing before risking your hard earned capital.

  • It was the accepted practice in Babylon 4,000 years ago that for a month after the wedding, the bride's father would supply his son-in-law with all the mead he could drink. Mead is a honey beer and because their calendar was lunar based, this period was called the honey month we know today as the honeymoon.

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Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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