By Todd Harrison Apr 26, 2004 8:53 am
Visualize a profitable day!
Good mahning and welcome back to the flicky flack. With last week's trek to the dark side and back, Hoofy sidestepped an ursine attack. "They thought that they had me chopped up like wood," said Hoofs to the bears who misunderstood, "but they shoulda known that the boyz in the 'hood would jawbone and say that things were all good!" Can we get more giddy in Matador City or will those poor bulls be worthy of pity? It's a new week of freakdom and we can't sit still so suck down that jo' and lets hop to the 'Ville!
The bipolar stroll continues as we walk the path and do the math. There are two sides to the current coin and we must respect both regardless of our chosen posture. Is this a churning...or a basing? Are we edging through the echo bubble...or is there REALLY a grander bull cycle in play? Are the Sox for real...or is it only just April? These are the bottom lines in our minxy rhyme as we edge ourselves through the greasy grime.
This latest round trip returned us to familiar levels and something is eventually gonna give. We know that successive tests weaken any technical level and the bulls are aiming higher with a double barrel shotgun. The first target is S&P 1150-60, a zone that's become a familiar breeding ground for furry facelifts. The second is NASDAQ 2080, which will scare the bears with some flakeless hair. If the latter level leaks out, inverse dandruff will embolden the bulls to believe that there will be no more tears.
I'm attempting to remain open-minded despite my steadfast belief that excess ultimately breeds excess. If my big picture blues come to pass, the (in some case) triple digit multiples of bubbles past will usher in single digit midgets in years ahead. Maybe I'm eating a silly sandwich but I still can't convince myself that asset bubbles (or debt) equals real wealth. That may not matter in the near-term (if we break out) but it's something that lingers in the back of my crowded keppe. It's also something that has cost me a lot of money during this latest reflation migration.
Anecdotal evidence--namely the VIX, sentiment, insider sales, looming supply and the specter of higher rates--suggests that we're in the late innings of the easy winnings. And believe it or not, there are also fundamental questions despite the fact that earnings beat across the Street. Remember Minyans, there were alotta alligator arms in the first quarter of 2003 as the uncertainty of war loomed. That is what's known in Wall Street parlance as "easy compares" and it's starting to get a bit louder in the chatter circles.
We power up this frisky pup to find Europe higher (mergers), the metals better (early), the dollar index slippin' (under the 200-day), our stateside futes pancake flat and the weather outside drizzly damp. Friday's minxy response to Microsoft (MSFT:NASD) was underwhelming as the rotation migration took center stage. Watch for further sector spotlights and monitor the internals and our lead tells for guidance. And think positive, Minyans--you've got a lot to be thankful for.
Good luck today.
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