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Random Thoughts


Shared learning and fiscal literacy. It's a lost--if not forgotten--mantra on Wall Street.

  • "The 1970's were the decade of the product--we bought the home, the car and the home entertainment system. The 1980's were the decade of the image--we bought the Rolex, the sports car and the fancy suits. The 1990's were the decade of experience--we traveled to Europe , vacationed and broadened our horizons. This is the decade of relationships, where networks and communities will become invaluable assets in both business and pleasure." Jeff Saut of Raymond James.

  • Night at the Round Table

    I attended a snazzy Wall Street idea dinner last night and walked away with names I wanna do some work on. Interesting situations on the long side include.
    • Canadian names (for reasons discussed yesterday) such as the Toronto Stock Exchange (X-T) and the Canadian Oil Sands Trust (COSWF)
    • Argentinean Agricultural play Cresud (CRESY)
    • United Healthcare (on the flop)
    • Covanta (CVA)
    • Itron (ITRI)
    • Tefron (TFR)
    • ICG (ICO)
    • Portal Software (PRSF)
    • Weatherford (WFT)
    • Bright Horizons (BFAM)
    • Valero (VLO).

Short ideas included the housing stocks, tire plays (CTB) and trucking names.

Obviously, none of these vibes are shared as advice--they're simply food for thought should Minyans wanna noodle their merits and see if they fit.

  • SunMicro, after trading as much as 10% higher last night, quickly flopped back to the flat line. I bought another slug under $5, so you know, as I believe in the long-term story of a centrally served universe. And for the record, I consider "sell reiterations" vs. "buy recommendations" to be incrementally positive for this pup as denial isn't a river in Egypt.

  • The bipolar stroller continues in the metal frenzy as thy precious ones trade firmly in the green. Two thoughts--one, I continue to believe that this volatility is masking a "deeper" issue and two, Jeff Saut's wise words continue to resonate in my keppe: "There's no bull market like a gold bull market. Rebalance, but never lose your cores.'

  • Speaking of Homies, Professor Fleckenstein (that's FleckenSTEIN) weighs in with his vibes on the housing sector.

  • Flipper! Note the smack dabbage in the drillers, which have reversed sharply from the opening jig. Only Weatherford is bucking the trend--thus far--and remains on my "laundry list for a later day."

  • I've been doing some work on diamond plays---no, not those diamond plays--investment oriented diamond plays. I hope to have some further flava in the next few days.

  • NYSE internals are 2:1 negative while the Nazz finds three red for every two ahead.

  • When do I wanna nibble anew on energy and metals? When I see "legitimately oversold" levels.

  • I'm starting to eyeball United Healthcare in here. I haven't pulled thy trigga yet but I wanted to toss it on ye radar. Remember, I have some decent downside gamma in the financials so I've got a little latitude on long side (disciplined) tries.

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag: "Toddo - Not to distract you from the daily grind but i gotta tell you that your staff is top notch. Ever since registering for Minyans in the Mountains, I have experienced top notch service and "nice little touches" from your Queen and the entire team. Nice work--I'm truly looking forward to mingling in the Mountains!" Minyan KK."

    MKK- Thank you--that's what we do and who we are. We set a rather high bar in Ojai--not just the content, but the "experience" and agenda, the warmth and the love, the ideas and the relationships. We also understand that this is a bit of a shlep for most Minyans and we set our sights on receiving the same feedback we got last year, such as "this is the best financial retreat we've ever attended," "You guys definitely didn't charge enough," and "Attending MIM was one of the best investments of my career."

  • Actual question at last night's idea dinner: "Why in the hell would would you broadcast your best thoughts and ideas when you can make a lot more money trading them under the radar?" Answer: Shared learning and fiscal literacy. It's a lost--if not forgotten--mantra on Wall Street. He, of course, looked at me like I had six heads.

  • Get off the babysitter, Joel. In fact, get outa here!

  • We've noted the importance of Citigroup $48. Please note that the banking giant is also sitting on the uptrend line from the February lows.

  • Scotto Reamer shared this article over on today's Buzz.

  • I was flippin' last night and saw a well known market pundit pushing ten "old school industrials" as "must owns." We don't do acrimony in the 'Ville but I will respectfully disagree and leave it at that. The * to that thought, of course, is the dollar. If the greenback gets cut in half, the "pure price action" many a stock will "appear" much higher.

  • R.P.
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