By Todd Harrison Apr 25, 2005 12:02 pm
Hit 'em hard!
- Yo! Happy Passover!
- Vibes from Sir Lance a lot!
- Thoughts on the NYSE/ARCA merger:
This deal was a proactive step by the New York Stock Exchange, which needed to do something in order to compete. The open-outcry system is on borrowed time and the merger was a necessary step to compete in the digital age. They tipped their hand that times were tough when they floated the notion of extending the trading day, an idea universally opposed to on the Street. Will the deal work? Right now it's unclear although the earnings curve for that segment of the business has gotten much steeper. Margins on the execution side will continue to deflate as a function of the easier access to information and the customer need for low-cost and volume discount solutions. In the end, this merger makes them a player. The question remains whether this particular game is worth playing
- Hoofy has focused his attention on the snazzy internals and leadership in the financials (XBD +2%). Boo remains convinced that this action is simple noise in a prolonged churn under resistance.
- Roadmap to Ruin?
- If you are are a professor with an accredited college or university and would like to participate in a (very exciting) beta test, please let us know and we'll loop you in!
- And I'm the dieter of the century!
- "Friday's decline adds considerable weight to the idea that the larger intermediate term trend remains down. No change from last week's stance: we will maintain our view that a bear trend from the March 7th peaks is underway and that unless SPX 1171, DOW 10360, and NDX 1460 are exceeded, this bearish trend toward lower numbers remains intact. The fact that some of the highest beta major indices in the market - the Russell 2000, the Nasdaq Composite and the SOX - did not make new lows on April 20th but have put in a very mean-reverting bounce from their respective April 18th lows is more bearish than the Blue Chips. This introduces the non-trivial possibility that we are about to experience an even more violent and substantial decline than we originally envisioned last week. Recall that we have been looking for DOW 9639, SPX 1092, and NDX 1350/1315 areas as next good intermediate targets. Well, the action in the RTY, SOX, and CCMP introduce the potential that these lower levels might not hold. Net/net; we remain in an intermediate term bearish trend that has yet to tag our lower target levels and that has not yet exceeded important upper resistances that would nullify this assessment. Thus no change to our intermediate term bearish view." -- Scotto Reamer on today's Buzz.
- "The stock market is not giving you very much," he said, and neither is the bond market. "You have a choice between cash and real estate."
- Blood, hail, locusts, darkness...
- Meow Mix!
- "We awoke Friday thinking Wednesday's low should produce a three- to five-day trading rally. Following that, we surmised, a pullback/retest should be due going into the May 3rd FOMC meeting. In that pullback/retest, if the market's internals look decent, and the 10000.46 low holds, we think participants can commit additional capital to stocks. If, however, that low is violated all bets are off." -- Uber-Minyan Jeff Saut of Raymond James.
- While I simply despise the Broncos, it's hard not to like the Nuggets. I think that they can surprise alotta teams in the west.
- Fiscal literacy isn't predicated on how many stocks you can buy or sell in a minute.
- Dog Day afternoon.
- Minyanville is proud to welcome Fari Hamzei to the Minyanville family. Fari is one of the sharpest "timers" out there and we look forward to his excellent acumen.
- I had a moment of clarity on Friday as I turned from the burial and immediately saw a newborn child. It reminded me of the "circle of life" and the importance of our journey. We often say that it should never take something bad to make us realize that we've got it good. Pain breeds perspective, however, and it often takes hardship to reinforce these learned lessons.
- Back to the flickering ticks, our "single best intraday tell" (breadth) has been snazzy all session and that supports the idea of an upside breach of initial resistance (S&P 1163). While I'm still in the "sell rallies" camp, I respect the power of perception should Hoofy take and shake through this zone. NDX 1460 and DJIA 10,400 loom (and fear is dripping quickly) so I my sense is that we have some "room" up and alotta "risk" down.
No positions in stocks mentioned.
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