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Rose Hill

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Lots on the overnight tap, Minyans, so stay lucid into the closing bell!

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Run, run, run for the roses
Sooner it opens, the quicker it closes
Man, oh, man, oh friend of mine
All good things in all good time


(Robert Hunter)


A morning meander has morphed to bear slander as Hoofy emerged as the Minxy commander. Indeed, the "he said she said' crowd has chosen to focus on the softer side of Elmer and a bevy of better earnings as we dance through the muck. The importance of the psychology metric? Dr. Melfi would schvitz in her shorts (get it?) if she saw the bi-polar action this week!

The weekly Minx is back in black and beat the ursine challenge back. A chorus of jaw boning helped quell fears that higher rates will crimp the pimp and Boo's now walkin' with a limp. Earnings, by and large, also buoyed sentiment and while names like KLA-Tencor (KLAC:NASD) remain cause for paws, stocks seemingly go up a lot easier than they go down. My gut is that this is a head-fake higher (before a sharper slide) but I haven't resolved whether we need to breakout and shakeout first. And please know that I'll never manufacture an opinion for opinion's sake.

Microsoft (MSFT:NASD), Amazon (AMZN:NASD) and Amgen (AMGN:NASD) highlight a very busy overnight session and will certainly color tomorrow's trading. In addition, Beeks will swing by for breakfast and release the durable goods report (exp. .7%, ex-trans 1.4%) to finish up what has been a tremendously busy week. The net/net for the trading set boils down to two simple points: Earnings and Elmer. Are the former baked into current levels (news is always best at the top) and can the latter tightrope his way over the potholes filled with pooh?

I'm sorta flattish on the equity side but I've dribbled and nibbled into a silver position. I actually tried to make a (very small) partial sale at $6.20 (trading around a core) as the 200-day ($5.86) is a beacon in a dark night. And while there are no guarantees that a moving average will stem forced selling, I initiated this risk with an elongated time horizon and will try to exhibit patience in executing that strategy. It's a departure, of sorts, from my immediate gratification (trading) mindset but old dogs must learn new tricks if they're gonna find some bones.

This is a thankless business and one that often gives us ample opportunity to beat ourselves up. I sensed some poppage and covered up yesterday morning but didn't get as aggressive as I shoulda (with the benefit of hindsight). There was a time in my life that I woulda had to put corks on the forks but not anymore (or as much). The greatest challenge we face as traders is to loosen our grip without losing the eye of the critter. It's a difficult balance but one that will ultimately lead to a better decision making process and, more importantly, a healthier perspective on life.

I'm slated to head to Boston tomorrow (lunchtime) but MAY head there this evening to take some morning Beantown meetings. If that's the case--and I won't know till later--I likely be MIA for the Friday fray. I wish I could clone myself as there's much to do but I'm no Dolly and I'm not sure I would wish that on the world. Either way we'll find our way so let me take this time to wish you well into thy bell.

May peace be with you.

R.P.
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