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Ramblins of a Random "In House" Investor


It was an interesting day yesterday as I watched Todd deliver a soliloquy at the Lubin House in New York the Syracuse University Alumni club. As we both went to Syracuse, it was only appropriate to head to the event, have an orange candy and listen to a group discuss the merits of being in the financial services industry. I was proud of Toddo as he delivered the most balanced perspective of the markets that I've heard.

I juxtapose this to the article I read in the Wall Street Journal yesterday about the conflict of analysts, their market calls and their connection to the parent company offering or co-underwriting the deal. This is no surprise to anyone reading this. But I thought I might take the opportunity to write a post from the perspective of the general investor. I've nothing to hide other than the stupid investment decisions I've made - or better yet, not made in the past year. Talk about stagflation! I'm the poster child.

Now that I've gotten that out of the way, what I find interesting about the market is it's really no different than a hot dog eating contest. If you eat too many hot dogs, you're going to eventually run out of space. Two options: 1) stop eating!?! (This would be too logical) 2) puke, rest and start eating again!

I started a massive up-tick on my career by winning the marketing assignment for Sun Microsystems (SUNW). It was a great day. The stock was flying at around $74-75 dollars and McNealy was out for blood (read: Microsoft (MSFT)). But as I sat there looking at the product mix, the business strategy, the server market, the question entered - how many people or companies actually need this product? Well, the hotdogs have been eaten and the market has puked and now we're resting, low and behold, I expect more room to eat again in the near future. This is the cycle.

The Wall Street Journal was talking about the projections for Plasma screen sales over the next quarter. Low and behold, it was positive. Hmmm, let me see, a 50% drop in price for new technology tends to do that! So how were Samsung and Phillips' ratings by Citi and UBS? Surprise, they were all positive. But look at where we are; we are at the beginning of the hot dog eating contest. I think it's going to be a short one. The crescendo comes in 2006 when the majority if not all broadcasters switch over to DTV. It will be just in time for the new technology!

The point is, as long as I look where I'm standing, I'll never see where I'm going. Can I get another hotdog please?

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