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Random Thoughts


Breathe,'re officially stepping over the Thursday Hump!

  • The Matador Crowd was trying to make Hoofy proud when it probed S&P acne levels but breadth never confirmed (they were flattish). Now, S&P 1295-1300 support must be eyeballed as the reversal of fortune kicks in and market internals tickle 2:1 negative.

  • Holy Inertia, Batman! Silver futes were down as much as 17% this morning. I asked Pep where he would nibble anew at Newmont (NEM) and Silver Standard (SSRI), my big cap metal equity proxies of choice. He responded "near 54 and just below 20ish", respectively, and I've mentally circled those levels. Still, I would love for these names to register legitimate oversold readings before re-dipping.

  • My two financial proxies, Citi and Goldman, are co-heading the "pay no mind" club.

  • We saw a buyer of 30,000 XLE (energy select) May 56 puts this morning. Exxon-Mobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips make up 37% of this index.

  • It's paid--literally--to buy energy and metals whenever the stochastics have gotten oversold. The other side of that ride--selling tech and financials when their stochastics are overbought--hasn't been as easy.

  • Are you prepared for dollar devaluation? I see the greenback significantly devaluing in the years ahead.

  • SunMicro is trading higher on the heels of the WSJ article that the sun may soon set on Scott McNealy. Could this be why he's been dumping his stock and, if so, can we read that as a positive? (He's had a prickly relationship with the Street).

  • In addition to Minyan Softball and Minyan Golf, we'll be starting the Minyan Hoops tourney at MIM3. I call Weldon and Garbacz!

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag: "Toddo- Very interesting--what you wrote--it's the only thing that makes sense? What happens when that person or people are "done"? Professor Herb Greenberg


    It becomes a question of containment vs. contagion. Given the derivative "fabric" and the globalization of markets, there is an increasing synchronicity in the marketplace. I have no edge in postulating that it'll happen, I simply wanted to toss in on our collective radars for a group noodle.

  • Coincidence? Europe 's financial regulators have held a "war game" exercise, simulating a continent-wide financial crisis, amid fears they are ill- prepared to stop a problem in one country spreading across borders, the Financial Times reported. The exercise involved simulating the collapse of a big bank with operations in several large countries to see whether the European Central Bank, national central banks and finance ministries could work to get her to contain the crisis. The results are being analyzed and will be reported to the Ecofin council in June.

  • Do you see the dandruff in the DXY? It "works" to 82, roughly a 7% drop in the dollar from here. What does that "infer" for equity markets (and asset classes in general)?

  • Are the financials and semis the beneficiaries in rotation station today?

  • Do you have Peace Frog in your head too?

  • "Intel (INTC) is stuck in a dreaded long squeeze. No shorts and weak technicals. Our technical rank remains weak at 20% with an Erlanger Short Ratio of 1.17. We note that Intel should be turning up from a seasonal standpoint and it has not been able to turn up. Many a buyer has been hurt by the dreaded value trap. A smart play would be to sell calls in this name each month and simply collect premium." Professor Phil "my pockets" Erlanger on today's Buzz.

  • When will volatility roll into equities? The VXO is up a whopping 1.6% (to 10.8!) despite 10%+ moves in a bevy of individual names (including General Motors).

  • How many greedy traders will soon empathize with this fella?

  • I'm no attorney but I gotta think this is a violation of constitutional rights?

  • Breathe,'re officially stepping over the Thursday Hump!

  • R.P.
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