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Note: Our goal in Minyanville is to remove the intimidation from the markets and encourage interactivity in the interest of education. It is with that intent that we share the following exchange.
For most of the last 18 months, an important part of your bearish case was a belief that deflation was just around the corner and that $100 put under the mattress would turn into $150 in 3-5 years. Now, you are saying that inflation is the problem. If your major concern about deflation is no longer relevant, shouldn't that make you bullish rather than bearish. If not, it would appear that nothing will make you happy from an investment perspective and you will remain bearish no matter what happens
Minyan Mark Rogers
Dear Minyan Mark,
This is the potential 'problem' with a running dialogue--if you miss the column on certain days, you may also miss shifts in my reasoning/mindset. Last year, as the printing press was spitting out dollars at a feverish pace, I publicly removed myself from the deflation camp and stepped into the stagflation arena.
My reasoning at the time, as it is now, was that the Fed had a very public agenda to reflate the economy and, as a by-product of their mission, was lowering the value of the greenback (by increasing the supply). Further, this tactic by Elmer imported inflation via making the dollar less valuable as a global currency. When coupled with sluggish growth (ex-stimulus) and high unemployment (stated or otherwise), we arrive at the textbook definition of stagflation.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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