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Worry Wall!


On your nose, Toddo!


When I was a child I had a fever
My hands felt just like two balloons
Now I got that feeling once again
I can't explain, you would not understand

(Pink Floyd)

Deja vu, young Boo --- these animal spirits are frisky, aren't they? A young Minyan asked me if we're going to climb the wall of worry or if this is the most complacent (read: bearish) environment we've seen in a long time. I told him that I'd tell him in 10%! There's no way to know, without the benefit of hindsight, which way the cookie will crumble -- all we can do is humbly play her game and attempt to find our way.

I had dinner with my good friend, John Succo, last night and we discussed the virtues of risk management. John has been around a long time (although he's in much better shape than I am) and he's seen a thing or two in the markets. He shares my big-picture concerns, but that really wasn't the meat of the conversation. We talked more about strategies and the necessity of a disciplined, patient and intelligent approach to the market. John shares my opinion that gamma (long vol) is a smart way to play right now. While I know many of you can't (and shouldn't) trade options, I wanted to share this with the Minyans who can.

The bear in me wanted to see last night's CENTCOM press conference "Saddam related." I think the Minx needs to get past that event and digest it for normalcy to begin to seep back into the marketplace. Regardless, and as a function of a disciplined scale of May paper puts, I'm slipping one leg into my metaphorical bear costume (makes 25% conviction on the short side.).

Gotta hop! Fare ye well.
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