On your nose, Toddo!
When I was a child I had a fever
My hands felt just like two balloons
Now I got that feeling once again
I can't explain, you would not understand
Deja vu, young Boo --- these animal spirits are frisky, aren't they? A young Minyan asked me if we're going to climb the wall of worry or if this is the most complacent (read: bearish) environment we've seen in a long time. I told him that I'd tell him in 10%! There's no way to know, without the benefit of hindsight, which way the cookie will crumble -- all we can do is humbly play her game and attempt to find our way.
I had dinner with my good friend, John Succo, last night and we discussed the virtues of risk management. John has been around a long time (although he's in much better shape than I am) and he's seen a thing or two in the markets. He shares my big-picture concerns, but that really wasn't the meat of the conversation. We talked more about strategies and the necessity of a disciplined, patient and intelligent approach to the market. John shares my opinion that gamma (long vol) is a smart way to play right now. While I know many of you can't (and shouldn't) trade options, I wanted to share this with the Minyans who can.
The bear in me wanted to see last night's CENTCOM press conference "Saddam related." I think the Minx needs to get past that event and digest it for normalcy to begin to seep back into the marketplace. Regardless, and as a function of a disciplined scale of May paper puts, I'm slipping one leg into my metaphorical bear costume (makes 25% conviction on the short side.).
Gotta hop! Fare ye well.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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