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Worry Wall!

By

On your nose, Toddo!

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When I was a child I had a fever
My hands felt just like two balloons
Now I got that feeling once again
I can't explain, you would not understand


(Pink Floyd)

Deja vu, young Boo --- these animal spirits are frisky, aren't they? A young Minyan asked me if we're going to climb the wall of worry or if this is the most complacent (read: bearish) environment we've seen in a long time. I told him that I'd tell him in 10%! There's no way to know, without the benefit of hindsight, which way the cookie will crumble -- all we can do is humbly play her game and attempt to find our way.

I had dinner with my good friend, John Succo, last night and we discussed the virtues of risk management. John has been around a long time (although he's in much better shape than I am) and he's seen a thing or two in the markets. He shares my big-picture concerns, but that really wasn't the meat of the conversation. We talked more about strategies and the necessity of a disciplined, patient and intelligent approach to the market. John shares my opinion that gamma (long vol) is a smart way to play right now. While I know many of you can't (and shouldn't) trade options, I wanted to share this with the Minyans who can.

The bear in me wanted to see last night's CENTCOM press conference "Saddam related." I think the Minx needs to get past that event and digest it for normalcy to begin to seep back into the marketplace. Regardless, and as a function of a disciplined scale of May paper puts, I'm slipping one leg into my metaphorical bear costume (makes 25% conviction on the short side.).

Gotta hop! Fare ye well.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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