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Random Thoughts


These are the times when perspective matters most!

  • Zoë was a bit frazzled after she thought she saw a ghost.

  • The other side of isolationism.

  • There remains a difference between loss and loss.

  • "We've been writing, and showing charts, for some time that the market needs a "weekly" oversold reading in order to create a condition important enough to generate a contra-trend rally. As of last Friday's close only the DJIA and Nasdaq were entering into weekly oversold territory while momentum for the S&P has yet to deteriorate enough to create a similar weekly oversold result." -- Uber-Minyan John Roque of Natexis Bleichroeder.

  • My sense--for today--is that there is room on the upside but risk to the downside.

  • Unreal Estate.

  • Two words: Viagra.

  • I'll be speaking to the Syracuse University and Wharton alumni Wednesday night at Lubin House in NYC. The topic will be "Alternative Investments" and is scheduled from 6:30 pm-8:30 pm, followed by some informal networking and discussions. If you would like to attend this event, please RSVP here and I'll see you there!

  • Speaking of stiff religious interpretation...

  • A picture is worth 1000 homes.

  • "We recently posed the question "breakout or fakeout," referencing the Dow Theory "buy signal" of early March where the D-J Industrials, and the D-J Transports, simultaneously broke out to new reaction highs. At the time we deemed the upside breakout as a "fakeout" and positioned investments (read: strategic) accordingly. Yet last week the question again became, "breakout or fakeout?"with the Dow Theory "sell signal" (where both of the senior indices broke below their January reaction lows, thus signaling a "sell signal" by our method of interpreting Dow Theory). That action left us back in nearly a 100% cash position in the trading account and hedged on the downside in the investment account as we await future opportunities. So far this year our outsized position in "cash" has been a winning strategy." -- Uber-Minyan Jeff Saut of Raymond James

  • S&P 1153-63 is the first area of resistance and a backdrop for Boo as he looks to turn the screws. NDX 1460 is a similar level for the techcentric Minyans in our midst.

  • Talk to me in October.

  • Your Delta Tau Chi pledge name is "Raisonette!"

  • A view from Lehman chartist Jeff DeGraaf: "The S&P 500 violated key support last week and many of our conditional elements have deteriorated. Short term momentum indicators are deeply oversold but we are not buyers of a bounce given the conditional elements: 1) Trend - Deteriorated as Friday's price action saw the S&P 500 close below its 200 day moving average, making this the second of our five trend following systems to register a bearish reading in recent weeks. 2) Momentum - Our Master Momentum Indicator has rolled over; the S&P 500 advance decline line has broken support with the market; Fresh breakdowns on the S&P 1500 last week totaled 106 vs. 13 Fresh Breakouts. 3) Price Proximity - The greatest percentage of issues below the 50-day moving average since March '03; the hourly charts show the stochastic is oversold but our master price proximity indicator has not yet become oversold. 4) Sentiment - MSI is reflective of the pessimistic mood, confirmed by multi year lows in the percentage of bulls from AAII and a spike in the VIX."

  • At least they don't have to name the kid!

  • We're actively working towards releasing details on the second annual Minyans in the Mountains financial retreat. Please circle the weekend of August 18-21 in Santa Barbara, California. It's gonna be a humdinga!

  • We noted on Friday that an uglier opening would have been more appealing to Hoofy. We can say the same of today's early optimism.

  • Remember to breathe.

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