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Random Thoughts


Continued "thanks" to ye faithful around the globe who've taken the time to send kind vibes.

  • How does one pronounce Harrison in Canadian, eh?

  • Just remember, risk is a two-sided equation. Particularly when you can't afford to lose.

  • Minyan Gerry Vos just called to let us know that, after 18 days, he's heading home from the hospital. Continued white light, my brother--this too shall pass.

  • The Minx has hit a fluxy patch as we edge over the first of our five humps. Energy remains jiggy (OSX 225ish is an all-time high) while some stealth "S's over N's" action emerges. Breadth, so you know, is flat lining (in a pre-Jack Bauer sorta way). And in other inertia news, the brokers hold their bid as Goldman and Bear lead the upside speed. I'm short the former (for a trade) in the form of defined risk downside paper.

  • "The call for this week: Last week we told folks to ignore the stock market's action because the "players" were leaving for the holidays. Today is much the same given Europe 's holiday. It will be interesting to see what happens when participants return on Tuesday and Wednesday. We worry they will show up in "sell mode." Accordingly, stop-loss points should be raised on trading positions, while under-performing stocks should be pruned from portfolios. Further, we would suggest rebalancing those stocks in the portfolio that have surged since the October 2005 lows (read: sell a partial position). Alcoa (AA) would be a good example. Alcoa was on our "buy list" in the low $20s back in mid-October. Last week Alcoa announced blow-out earnings and leapt to $35/share. Rebalancing such a stock position allows profits, and cash, to accrue in the portfolio and tends to realign Alcoa's weighting within the portfolio. As for what to buy, that was best summed up by our healthcare analyst, John Ransom, when he said, "Healthcare is 'on sale' and United Healthcare (UNH) is probably as good a name as any." Uber-Minyan (and MIM3 keynote) Jeff Saut of Raymond James.

  • Energy. Metals. Matador City. I've been saying it for a long time but I'm currently not involved. Sellers remorse? Nah, I've invested plenty in precious stones this past week!

  • While today may be a slow go, take a peek at the Trading Radar to properly prepare for what's to come. Earnings may not matter but outlooks and the reaction to news will speak volumes.

  • Keep your eyes on the homies as the HGX dips below double secret support (the 50- and 200-day).

  • I'd rather be going to hell in a bucket baby, at least I'd be enjoying the ride!

  • I'm watching Intel as we edge towards earnings on Wednesday. Most everyone I speak to believes the report will be fugly but, then again, the stock has reflected that sentiment. I'm no longer involved--after trading out of a long try for a push--but wanted to keep it on ye radar.

  • The tea leaves? Mixed, at best, and nondescript. I'm using the time to take some practice cuts before the earnings pitch comes down the pipe.

  • SunMicro has quietly dipped back below $5. I added a slab o' stock when it tickled a nickel and I've settled into cruise control. If it retreats further, I'll add another round of exposure.

  • Nobody could figure out why the Wadsworth Fire Department brought marshmallows to the blaze.

  • The dollar continues to get hit as crude taps on $70 and the metals chug and hug. It makes sense, from a "asset class reflation vs. dollar devaluation" standpoint but it's not a linear discussion. In other words, we're talking about a delicate balance in an unsteady world. Keep your risk defined and your eyes open, Minyans, the tape feels like it wants to get nuttier than Austin Powers' coffee.

  • Continued "thanks" to ye faithful around the globe who've taken the time to send kind vibes. It's very much appreciated, by the both of us.

  • R.P.
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Position in GS, financials, SUNW
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