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Point & Go Figure: SPX, Gold


Are we about to see a golden fleece?


Market Overview:

Ever so slowly, the short-term conditions continue to deteriorate from very high-risk levels. The pattern of lower lows and lower highs persists for both the NYSE and Nasdaq Composite Percent Above 50-day Moving Average Indicators and both are now negative (in a column of Os) on their charts. Both are on sell signals as well, having each exceeded previous columns of Os.

The High-Low Indices for the NYSE and Nasdaq Composite are also both negative. Both are in a column of Os and remain near the high-risk 70% level.

The longer-term bullish percent Indices for the NYSE and Nasdaq Composite are both still in Xs, but the larger pattern of lower highs there also remains intact, a significant bearish divergence. The more narrow S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 Bullish Percents both are negative, each in a column of Os.

Charts of Interest:
S&P 500 (SPX)
The SPX remains on the sell signal (a triple bottom break) that was given last week. A move to 1300 would reverse the chart back to Xs but it would take a move to 1315 to generate a new buy signal. A move to 180 would violate trendline support from the October lows.

Gold Continuous
While it is always dangerous to attempt to predict a top in a financial instrument making new highs, it is nevertheless prudent to be aware of when probabilities favor an important potential turning point. Looking at the continuous futures chart for gold, DeMark indicators are on active sell signals across multiple time frames from daily to monthly. DeMark sell signals do not necessarily suggest gold will never again go higher, but a cluster of sell signals across multiple time frames suggests at least some type of significant pause in the recent move to 25-year highs.

GC/ daily
Note DeMark TD-ST risk level at 618; a close above that level would indicate the possibility of uptrend continuation. Meanwhile, note how the 9 buy and sell setups have worked the past three months. I do not trade 9 setups, preferring to wait for the actual price completions, but a chart like this makes me kinda wish I did.

GC/ weekly
The TD-Combo sell signal (in red) saw the risk level (red line) violated and the trend subsequently continue. But note the just completed weekly TD-Sequential sell signal.

GC/ monthly
On a monthly basis, DeMark sell signals have simultaneously registered for both TD-Sequential and TD-Combo, which is a more stringent version of Sequential. Note that the last DeMark 13 indicator was a buy signal which occurred in March 2001.

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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