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Unleavened Levity

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Trade to win...never trade "not to lose"

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Fokker! I understand you've been busy but, come on now, how could you POSSIBLY order bagels and schmear for breakfast? I had to go back and change the last post to correctly read matzos and schmear! Dude -- get with the holiday program before I scramble your eggs!

We're understandably jammin' here so I'm gonna keep this post short and sweet, shmoopie.

UBS Warburg booted Applied Micro Circuits (AMCC:Nasdaq), Harley-Davidson (HDI:NYSE), CSX (CSX:NYSE) and Caterpillar (CAT:NYSE); JP Morgan shifted Ford (F:NYSE) higher while booting CVS (CVS:NYSE); Smith Barney bleached Colgate-Palmolive (CL:NYSE); Wachovia upgraded Broadcom (BRCM:Nasdaq); Merrill boosted Broadcom; Lehman upped Williams Companies (WMB:NYSE) and El Paso Corp. (EP:NYSE), and finally, Goldman upgraded PacifiCare Health Systems (PHSY:Nasdaq) and booted First Health Group (FHCC:Nasdaq).

My thoughts in a nutshell are as follows: How did I get in this nutshell? This is the biggest damn nutshell I've ever seen! Sorry -- wrong thought. I believe the N's over S's trade continues, on a relative basis, as money rotates intramarket. Also, and I'm always honest with my fellow Minyans, I must communicate that my fur is starting to get tingly.

I'm always early -- this we know -- but I'm looking at a lot of things that are telling me that the market is heading lower. Not only that, but I believe that, with vols down here, there are ways to play that offer a compelling risk/reward profile. I'll be looking to add out-of-the-money puts in the S&P complex (more vulnerable) in either May or June paper. Again, the financials are the most extended and, while NOTHING is guaranteed in this tape, I like the idea of defined downside risk. As always, just one trader's most humble opinion.

Watch the dollar (as well as the other macro tells), the financials, the semis (sentiment), retailers, breadth and our levels. S&P 860 and NDX 1020 are the first real support zones while yesterday's higher will act as resistance.

I've gotta hop, bunny. Kick some arse today.
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