The sum of the parts is always greater than the whole
"Early in the evenin' just about supper time,
Over by the courthouse they're starting to unwind.
Four kids on the corner trying to bring you up.
Willy picks a tune out and he blows it on the harp."
The mornin' Zoo is a messy brew as the critters look for trading clues. The latest round of news isn't good-- Nokia (NOK:NYSE) pooped the bed again, IBM (IBM:NYSE) wasn't up to snuff and the Wolverine confidence index is, well, in need of a little self-help. THE question, from a trading standpoint, now becomes: If bad news was good and good news was then bad, will this bad news be good or bad?
To be sure, the worry warty rate debate was the latest source of profound hate. With this latest spate of ursine bait, however, the firmer bonds are offering Boo food for thought. His catalyst (of late) was the perception that higher rates were choking growth and triggering the domino effect (and reflation unwind) through the financial markets. Now we're seeing the softer side of the fundamental ride and, with it, incremental data that maybe things aren't 'that' robust. Hence, as is the process, rates have "come in" during today's early trading.
A walk through the Minx finds the semiconductors sitting directly on the 200-day support (SOX 473), the financials bouncing (meow) and trying to find traction/sponsorship (real support is 2+% lower), breadth a mirror image in the S's vs. N's, telecom listening to chin music (Nokia) and IBM adopting the new nickname: Big Black & Blue. Meanwhile, the S's hold the all-important S&P 1123 support while the N's are starting to shift their focus from NDX 1450 to the 200-day at 1400.
The metals are firmer (much to my chagrin as my broker missed silver with a six handle), the dollar is givin' a little green back, Europe is sorta green (Bundesbank president Welteke offered to resign), and crude seems like she wants to take a poke at $40. If expiration history holds, we could be in meander mode until later in the session before the manicuring and posturing that is the expiration square dance begins in earnest.
As always, I hope this finds you well.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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