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Etch-A-Sketch

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This is a pretty important close from a sentiment perspective.

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There's battle lines being drawn
Nobody's right if everybody's wrong
Young people speaking their mind
Getting so much resistance from behind


(Buffalo Springfield)

Alright, what was it about Chachi? He's dated Pamela Anderson, Nicole Eggert, Nicolette Sheridan, Brooke Shields, Heather Locklear, Erin Moran, Denise Richards, Beverly D'Angelo and Erika Eleniak. That's not a black book -- it's a swimsuit calander! Who woulda thunk that Fonzi's lil' cousin had such mojo -- and who would thought so many Minyans loved Charles in Charge!

Back to life, back in reality, the tale of two tapes continues and the N's over S's trade is in full swing. We discussed their field position yesterday and that helped us identify the relative disparity, but what about the broader tape? Surely, either the N's will pull the S's through resistance or the S's will suck the N's towards support -- but which will it be?

That's the zillion dollar question on everybody's lips and, as Tony's been saying, a case can be made for either camp. There are some very respected folks calling for a continued rally (as well as some not-so-respected folks) but, at the same time, the warning signs that have saved us in the past are flashing bright red. Further, while the internal mechanism (commercial traders, bullish percentage, higher lows) point north, the low volatility measures, pervasive bullishness and lower highs point due south. What the heck is going on here?

The answer, my friend, may be blowing in the wind but when it's all said and done, one of these camps is gonna be lickin' their wounds. The onus is on us to construct a strategy that is an extension of our view while allowing for a sufficient margin of error. What that is, and how that's executed, is completely unique to your individual time horizon and risk profile. I still feel that this will ultimately prove to be the same 'ol, same 'ol (head fake) but, as you know, that's simply one trader's (honest) opinion.

Tonight's earning's parade will include Advanced Micro Devices (AMD:NYSE), Apple (AAPL:Nasdaq), Broadcom (BRCM:Nasdaq), Mercury Interactive (MERQ:Nasdaq), SanDisk (SNDK:Nasdaq), Sun Microsystems (SUNW:Nasdaq) (among others) while Biogen (BGEN:Nasdaq), Ceridian (CEN:NYSE), Colgate-Palmolive (CL:NYSE), Cypress Semiconductor (CY:NYSE), Delta Airlines (DAL:NYSE), Georgia-Pacific (GP:NYSE), Golden West Financial (GDW:NYSE), Hershey Foods (HSY:NYSE), Marsh & McLennan (MMC:NYSE), Nokia (NOK:NYSE), PepsiCo (PEP:NYSE), PNC Financial (PNC:NYSE), SAP AG (SAP:NYSE), Sears (S:NYSE) and United Technologies (UTX:NYSE) (among others) will report tomorrow morning. Beeks will also drop off the initial jobless claims (expected at 410,000) and Philly Cheesecake (expected at -6.4) as we wade our way through April expiration.

A couple of quick blurbs before I scoot. The dollar continues to edge lower and that's started to get a bit louder in trading circles. Also, an account has bought 51,000 QQQ June 26 puts today into the tech firmness. Other than that, it's pretty quiet as traders begin to sneak out to observe the Passover holiday. For my part, I'll be leaving right on the bell such that I can get to Seder in time.

As always, I hope this finds you well.
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