Buzz Bits: Dow and Nasdaq Finish Higher
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Pop Quiz! - Todd Harrison - 2:54 p.m.
OK, it's sooooo slow out there. How slow is it?
A) You can almost hear a bonus drop.
B) Heinz (HNZ) is hiring Ben Bernanke as its new spokesman.
C) It's yesterday tomorrow, somewhere.
D) Seciton ydobon dna sdrawkcab gnipyt m'I
E) All of the above.
Seriously Yo, I just had a flashback to 2004 when the VXO slithered between 10 and 15 for the better part of the year. And if I didn't know better, I would steal a few midday winks given the beating I took this morning at 6:00 AM. But I do know better. And I don't wanna take another beating. So I'm watching. Waiting. Finger on the trigger, looking to pounce when the all-elusive edge arises.
The ability not to trade is as important as trading ability, I know, and I'm practicing my right to exercise proactive patience. Inherent in that approach is understanding (although not necessarily liking) that I'll miss moves but focusing instead on capturing the trades I choose to make. And yes, after a hot streak, my hand cooled over the last week so I'm doing a bit less under the "know thyself" mantra.
Know this: 5% from here, the move will seem obvious with the benefit of hindsight. Consistent with what I've shared in this space before, I'm 3:1 skewed Boo under S&P 1405 (we be churning) while trying to allow for liftage to that level. It's a dicey game of chicken, this "imbalances vs. socialization" thing but we can only play the hand we've been dealt.
And there is no shame in watching a few cards on occasion.
Gotsta hop as I've got some calls to take and make. As always, I hope this finds you well.
Energy Plays? - Greg Collins - 2:49 p.m.
Just wanted to pass on a few potential breakouts that I'm watching.
Occidental Petroleum (OXY)
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Candadian Natural Resources (CNQ)
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BJ Services (BJS)
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New Upleg in Brazil ETF - Michael Paulenoff - 12:56 p.m.
In general, the iShares MSCI Brazil Index (EWZ) exhibits a very constructive intermediate term chart pattern. All of the price action off of the Jan. low at 64.00 represents the start of a new upleg within the existing longer term bull trend that started in 2002 near 5.00.
Furthermore, the decline off of the Feb. 28th high at 88.77 to the March 20 low at 72.11 appears to me to be a completed pullback, and the start of a new upleg that projects to retest 88.00-81.00 on the way to 91.00-93.00. Let's notice how much respect the price structure (investors) have exhibited during tests of the sharply rising 200 DMA. As we speak, my work argues that investors are about to show a high degree of respect for the sharply rising 20 & 50 DMAs, which could propel the EWZ to retest the Feb. highs. Of course, some help from some of the other global equity markets (like the U.S.) certainly will be supportive, but not absolutely necessary for the EWZ to continue higher. For starters, the EWZ has to hurdle 85.20/30 to trigger upside acceleration.
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Crox of Hits - Jeff Macke - 12:25 p.m.
Greetings from New York where I'm wearing Crocs (CROX) flip flops, I own a Garmin (GRMN) GPS system and I wouldn't touch either stock if you held a Smith & Wesson (SMHC) to my head. And, no, I wouldn't buy SMHC, either. Whether it's Jonestown, Heaven's Gate or Sunbeam, rare is the cult that can make its way back after the fever breaks. Here's what I'm watching away from the carnage:
- Intel (INTC) reports after the bell and my sense of dread is palpable. It's entirely irrational to expect great things from the company in a world where AMD (AMD) just finished blowing up, Dell (DELL) is in Hell and the misses are piling up fast and furious. I'm still long because it's cheap and best of breed; I just wish there were less optimism in the air.
- Speaking of which, the giddy thrill of Delta (DAL) and Northwest (NWA) getting together was shorter than Bud Fox' career at Blue Star airlines. In defense of the airline merger; it makes more sense to me than Blockbuster (BBI) and Circuit City (CC). Of course, I think I'd still rather sleep on the floor in Laguardia airport than shop at Blockbuster.
- Another day, another 52-week high for Wal-Mart (WMT)
- Crocs (CROX) is going to be pushing 10x it's normal volume by the end of the day. Must... Not... Buy... Dip.
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