Sorry!! The article you are trying to read is not available now.
Thank you very much;
you're only a step away from
downloading your reports.

New Speedway Boogie


We're setting up for a Minxy wedgie!


It's a gorgeous day in Minyanville and the critters (wearing their springtime fashions) are jammin' and jugglin' with the early news flow. It's to be expected -- earnings week is always nutty -- but as the critters go about their business, I wanted to toss out a quick missive.

In overnight news, IBM (IBM:NYSE) endorsed its full year forecast. While some analysts were iffy on the (second quarter) mechanics, it was far from the puke that was whispered. Novellus (NVLS:Nasdaq) reported a disappointing number and, citing the effects of the SARS virus, guided lower. GM (GM:NYSE) said it is "uncertain if it can achieve 2003 EPS forecast" and is currently offered lower; Johnson & Johnson (JNJ:NYSE) looks to be inline (although there's chatter of weak U.S pharma sales), Merrill downgraded Hewlett-Packard (HPQ:NYSE), UBS Warburg checked out of the hotels (Hilton Hotels (HLT:NYSE), Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide (HOT:NYSE) and Marriott International (MAR:NYSE)), First Albany booted EMC (EMC:NYSE), Morgan Stanley raised numbers in Fannie Mae (FNM:NYSE), Citigroup (C:NYSE) and Bank of America (BAC:NYSE) while lowering them in Altria Group (MO:NYSE). WHEW!

On the economic front, the Empire Manufacturing number came in at a staggering -20.37 (vs. est. -.75) and, while it "seems" like an aberration, I haven't had a chance to chew through the numbers. Industrial production (exp. -.2%) and capacity utilization (exp. 75.3%) are due out at 9:15am, so please put those on your radar as well.

Despite yesterday's rally, the S&P and NDX are STILL firmly entrenched in a pattern of lower highs and higher lows. One of these is gonna give soon but, as it stands, the fight for technical supremacy is fierce. The most bullish aspect, and something we can't ignore, is the action in the financials. I've own a smattering of puts in these names and, thus far, I've been wrong (or, more likely, early). Regardless, I'm maintaining my bias and will trade around the position accordingly.

Along those lines, I've got both legs planted in my metaphorical bear costume (50% conviction on the short side) and when I smell Hoofy, I'll rent some exposure (intraday) against my puts.

In my mind's eye, I've got three options right now (no pun intended). I can get long... to sell... to get short (thread the needle), I can methodically scale into defined risk puts (and attempt to use price to my advantage) or I can sit it out and watch from the sidelines. I've opted for the second strategy as I continue to believe that we've seen this movie before -- I just don't know how long it'll last.

The mamaluke portion of earnings week hits tonight when Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq) and Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) state their case. Again, my concern (for Boo) is that expectations (in tech) are low and, as such, the bar MAY be sufficiently lowered. As such, I might opt to set up some gamma later in the day. Let's get through the morning flurry and see where we stand. A'ight?

Head up and think positive Minyans -- it all starts within. Fare ye well!

< Previous
  • 1
Next >
position in fnm, bac, c, qqq

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Featured Videos