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Are we gonna be there soon?


"You know, Hoofy, 'a man looks into the abyss' and stuff. Think of this as a learning experience."


The downward slide is entering the SOON state.

As in, it has become a Sell-Off Of Note.

As in "Fear is going to be dancing on a blood covered street Soon".

Both reassuring and terrifyingly, Soon as in "We're going to reach a tradable bottom Soon, in terms of time. It just might start 10% lower than where we are now."

Today, for the first time in months, it's possible to sense the animals getting spooked. Issues that Boo has been citing for months, only to have them stuffed down his throat, suddenly Matter in a stock-hammering way.

To cite but a few of the usual suspects for causing sell-offs of which we at least should have been long aware (and the drops they catalyzed):

  • Electronic Arts (ERTS) et al operate in an industry which ebbs and flows based on the timing of console releases (ERTS down 20 points since March 9).
  • General Motors (GM) has long term "problems" (GM down by 1/3 since the start of the year).
  • Apple (AAPL), though a vastly improved company, is not, in fact, going to sell 12 billion i-Pods ("Two for everyone on earth!") in 2006 (down 7.5 points in 5 days... including a weekend).
  • Wal-Mart (WMT) is unpopular and has many stores (drifting away from "support" at $52 "like Leo at the end of Titanic", as Mbop says).

On top of which you may layer corruption, currency, oil, real estate and a ton of stuff I'm forgetting.

I'm not arguing that the list of woes is being overstated. I'm not arguing that they are good things. I'm just saying, for the most part, there's nothing new driving sell-offs.

It's all stuff that we knew before. It just didn't matter then and now it does.

For whatever it may be worth, I'm thinking the selling ends soon but lower than here. I'm making my list of themes I like, to the extent that I'm interested in being long stocks. We'll revisit the list in a non-advising way tomorrow. No major rush, as I'm not thinking the selling is over just yet.

But soon...

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No positions in stocks mentioned.

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