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Random Thoughts


  • Freeze Frame!

  • I'm gonna tempt fate and share that we're planning on hosting Minyans in the Mountains II in Santa Barbara from August 18-21st. We'll have further details in the weeks ahead but please circle the dates and get ready to groove!

  • Daisy can finally put down her dukes!

  • Please keep close tabs on the DJIA as it breaks the 200-day. In addition to butt-ugly action, this index looks like it's got some serious dandruff to deal with.

  • The action today remains consistent with the reflation-deflation vibe that we've been monitoring. We've been offering that we can either see a strong dollar (and deflation of asset classes) or a weak dollar (and continued reflation). The action in the CRB, metals, Brazil (-2.5%) and equities thus far supports that vibe (although it's certainly not linear).

  • No Phoebe, they're not for you.

  • Market internals-our single best tell-are barely budging on the rally attempts. That's not a good sign for Hoofy and Snapper although we may see some posturing into the close ahead of tomorrow's triple flinch (expiration, Citigroup, General Electric).

  • I can't believe he married Heidi Klum!

  • I'll be speaking to the Syracuse University and Wharton School Alumni Clubs at the Lubin House in NYC this Wednesday (April 20th). The topic will be "Alternative Investments" and is scheduled from 6:30-8:30 pm, followed by some informal networking and discussions. If you would like to attend this event, please RSVP here. Thanks!

  • Textbook technical analysis dictates the time to initiate risk is on the retest of important levels. I told Boo that if he wanted to unleash his hounds, he's now got uber-tight upside stops in the form of NDX 1460 and DJIA 10,400ish.

  • Extra-crispy!

  • The dollar is now at the 200-day (DXY 85.20) and Gold holds the 200-day the other way.

  • Sittin' plush with a royal flush!

  • I, for one, will miss the Iron Horse next week while he's on vacation. With that said, there is nothing more important than getting away from the flickering ticks and enjoying the important stuff.

  • I gotta borrow this from yesterday's Buzz: "Give a man a fish and he'll eat today. Teach a man to fish and he'll likely be undercut by cheap foreign labor."

  • Pressers and guessers please take note.

  • "We haven't changed our (intermediate-term bullish) investment views, because nothing has changed to alter the direction of earnings, which is what correlates most directly to stocks. The only thing that should alter the positive direction of earnings is if the core CPI goes up enough to bring expectations of a recession, which inverts the yield curve (Fed spikes rates and investors buy long end). The recent move in commodities and below expected employment gains argue there should NOT be a sustainable spike in the core CPI." -- Snoop Tony Dwyer of FTN Midwest fame

  • My kinda protest!

  • I've had the pleasure of an uber-Minyan hat trick in the last 24 hours: Steve Galbraith, Mark Kellner and, today, Steve Shobin. I can't begin to tell you how humbling it is to be supported by folks like this as we chase the critter dream.

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