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Minyan Mailbag: Bausch & Lomb Time Horizons

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We strive to throw out ideas and analysis that hopefully - at some level - help Minyans say "ah ah... that's what my positions, risk profile and time horizon - whatever that may be - need right now."

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Hi Fil,

Regarding your comments on BOL. Is this is a short term trade on the long side for you or is it more of a buy and hold?

Regards,
Ray

Hi Ray - for me Bausch & Lomb (BOL) is a "depends" term hold. What got me into the trade was 1) a somewhat superficial review of the numbers involved in this mess; 2) figuring out support levels on the chart; 3) watching how it was trading pre-market yesterday - read: total puke. I scaled in (pre-market) with a very wide scale (.50 initially, then .25 as things got really ugly) and ended up getting a pretty good average price. I will admit this: the type of fundies analysis I did was certainly not what I do when I go hunting for long term value plays. Sometimes the price action is so fast that if one wants to play, he/she must rely on quick analysis and "gut feel," understanding that this inherently raises the degree of risk in the trade, and adjusting "size" accordingly.

From here I'll let the price / chart dictate what I do. Certainly if I can grab $4-5 quick points, I'll be gone. If the price stalls, it'll become a function of figuring out whether the stock is being accumulated or sold. It may be that new info comes out that convinces me that the punishment does fit the crime. Also, a BOL-type move right now fits well in the overall scheme of my positions. If something better shows up, I may trade-out of BOL just for that reason.

Perhaps this does not answer your question directly. But what we often stress in the 'Ville is that how one manages a portfolio cannot be neatly wrapped-up in a "recommendation." We strive to throw out ideas and analysis that hopefully - at some level - help Minyans say "ah ah... that's what my positions, risk profile and time horizon - whatever that may be - need right now."

Take care, Fil

Position in BOL
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