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Random Thoughts

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With every season, churn, churn, churn...

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  • As it stands, breadth is worse than 3:1 negative, we have hair in beta land (eBay, TZOO), the NDX and XBD have both broken important levels and the DJIA is dangerously close to doing the same. That doesn't mean we can't see a turnaround Tuesday, of course, but the ducks are currently quackin' to the south side.

  • A few traders are "hitting me up" saying that the put/call is north of one (bullish). True dat, although these figures are sometimes skewed during expiration week.

  • But what, exactly, was in Aaron Pryor's mystery bottle?

  • We're hearing (unconfirmed) chatter coming out of Europe that speculation of a 50 bip hike by the Fed (at their next FOMC meeting) is making the rounds. That "could" help explain the jig in the greenback although it's equally possible that some are trying to assign reason for the rhyme.

  • Coming soon-Alan Greenspan wallpaper!

  • I rolled down the "stop" on my metaphorical fur from above S&P 1205 to slightly above yesterday's highs. This has effectively locked in a gain for this latest schnitzel while leaving the open-ended downside on for a credit.

  • Snaps to the BoSox on hoisting the flag. Torre was a picture of class in leading the Yankee respect.

  • "Since the SPX's April 7th peaks, stocks (SPX) are down 160 bps and crude oil futures are down 640 bps. Over the last year when "everybody" knew that the SPX and oil were inversely correlated, the SPX has gained 2.6% and crude has gained 46.1%. And when you perform a statistical correlation (a very simple mathematical calculation you can do either on your Bloomberg or in Excel) between the two data sets, you get a correlation of +0.37. A perfect inverse (one goes up the other down) correlation would be -1.00. A perfect direct correlation (they both go up or down together) would be +1.00. Oil and stocks are not correlated. Not over the last year. Not over the last 5 years. Not over the last 10 years. The mathematics behind this statement is irrefutable." -- Scotto Reamer on today's Buzz.

  • We're bound to see a Snapper attempt either in front of the FOMC minutes or on the heels of it. Please keep an eye on our mainstay tells (during the try) to discern whether it's sustainable. At this point, it seems unlikely unless it occurs closer to S&P 1160ish.

  • Pass the 3-wood, mate!

  • Please note that the IWM (Russell) is right back at the uber-important 120 level. We saw size put buying on Friday and this level--along with DJIA 10,375-10,400--should stay on ye radar.

  • Traders on the Street aren't crying in the soup for the specialists who are being targeted by Mr. Spitzer. They feel, as do I, that these folks have taken advantage of market inefficiencies for years.

  • Not a day goes by that I don't intently focus on the content proposition on the 'Ville.

  • Remember the days when a Merrill upgrade of Cisco (CSCO) would have turned the whole tape? This is a real-time example of how the State of the Art has shifted dramatically.

  • Redrum!

  • Maybe I'm sentimental or perhaps there are some things I need to believe but I would be genuinely shocked if Mr. Buffett was privy to the malfeasance at AIG. This is a man who has built his life around his integrity and I doubt that he would knowingly jeopardize that for any amount of money.

  • Do you, Fido, take this woman to be your lawfully wedded wife?

  • Some days you feel like a nut, other days will make you nuts.

  • Please note the slippage in the brokers (XBD -1.5%) as the combination of structural smoke and regulatory concerns put the double whammy on Randolph and Mortimer.

  • The dollar continues to edge higher and is now spittin' distance from the 200-day (DXY 85.20).

  • Remember to breathe!


    R.P.
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No positions in stocks mentioned.

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

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