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Random Thoughts


Watch Citigroup (C:NYSE) as a key market tell.


  • Congrats to Minyan Herb Greenberg on his new gig as senior columnist at CBS Marketwatch!

  • Weight bet update-- Neil (teeth included) 218 lbs (from 227 lbs), Collins 191 lbs (from 199 lbs) and Harrison 209 lbs (from 215 lbs) have been scaled. We're still awaiting results from Mr. Spivak, Mr. Wassong and Mrs. JDog. Man--I was down to 203 lbs. before getting mugged by Ben and Jerry!

  • Walking through my stochastics, the following sectors have all given sell signals: Russell 2000, NDX, Dow Jones Industrials, S&P, SOX, trannies, biotechs and cyclicals. The financials, oil service names and drugs are all "middle of the road. Obviously, these are "yet a tool" and may not mean much with earnings on deck, but I wanted to pass it along nonetheless.

  • The next time you are in a different city, randomly scan the radio and open yourself up to new types of music.

  • Are the Dupont (DD:NYSE) job cuts a sign of further "tightening" by the industrial community? Is it the natural offset, in the absence of pricing power, to the rising input (commodity) prices?

  • Reuters reported earlier that seven U.S civilian contractors have been reported missing in Iraq. This may impact market psychology and, as such, we must monitor for potential sentiment shifts. It's not a "pleasant" topic but, often times, we don't live in a pleasant world. All we can do is the best we can do.

  • The dollar index is flat but the Yen has tacked on 1 percent vs. the Euro.

  • I'm psyched for Phil Mickelson. Nice putt!

  • If the critters starred in a modern day version of Wall Street, who would be cast as GG? (I'm thinkin' Hoofy but I'm curious as to your thoughts).

  • We're seeing sellers in the utilities as the UTY breaks the 50-day moving average.

  • From Professor Reamer on the Buzz regarding DeMark analysis: " I'm awfully reticent to speak for Tom but on a stand-alone basis, his indicators are primed for a significant turn down in the SPX. The Demark indicators have "set up" on the daily chart for a "flip" to the downside (after a valid completed "9" rebound) after an important series of trend-exhaustion "13's" in February, which, in Tom's work, is an important large degree trend exhaustion indicator. Its all very complicated (at least the details are) but the setup that the indicators will need to see to "confirm" the flip to the downside is this today: an open today below 1141.81 (we got that this AM) AND a low today lower than 1134.52 (Thursday's intraday low), which hasn't happened yet (and may not). If those two conditions are met, the cumulative Demark indicators from February to now place a good probability on the idea that an important large degree trend change is occurring. I often integrate the Demark indicators into the Fibonacci, Elliott, and momentum indicators I use so my conclusion is not as clear as Tom's right here, but that's what makes markets. As always, not advice--just sharing the process with hopes that it adds to yours."

  • In honor of our big bet, the Minx is trading very thin today.

  • Notice how the S&P filled the gap (last Wednesday) that was created by the payroll spike?

  • Wouldn't it just be easier to officially change the definition of inflation?

  • Journey, Def Leppard, Styx, Rush, Foreigner.

  • The Minx is drifty with an upside bias in the cyclicals (3M (MMM:NYSE) and Caterpillar (CAT:NYSE)). There hasn't been much in the way of sell-side motivation and, more likely than not, some traders who "squared" (into the weekend) are re-establishing risk.

  • So the REITs, utilities and homies--all rate sensitive--are lower. Yet, the banks and brokers keep a stiff upper lip (and posture). If (when) they fail, investors will "officially" worry... and we'll all point to the three sectors (now under pressure) as scribbles on the wall.

  • Adam Brodsky may be taking some time away from the 'Ville. He'll likely pop in (on occasion) but Breakfast buffs should be aware of this.

  • Brian's (continually) excellent take the interrelationship between (tight) corporate spreads and equities is a must read regardless of your posture.

  • It's not your's not your fault...

  • I would have to rank Dustin Hoffman ahead of Robert Deniro. I'm not sure where Al Pacino fits in but I'm tempted to stick him in the middle.

  • When in doubt, sit it out.

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