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Random Thoughts


Be mindful, think positive and trade to win.

  • I'll bet anyone $1 that prolonged red screens will lead to a new round of finger pointing and witch hunts on the Street.

  • Raaaaaaaaaaaid! Meanwhile, at the Roach Motel...

  • Mini-Minyan Mailbag:

    "I know it acts like pooh and I respect your sale of PFE on break of 200-day but, as we wind thru the next 6 months, my money is on healthcare. I was lucky to sell XLV at 33 and will be buying between here and 30. DEFENSE!" Your pal, Professor Bennet Sedacca .

    MB- You may be right (I may be crazy) but one of the reasons I entered this trade (in addition to my agreement with you that this sector may emerge as a hiding spot) was the defined risk and the potential for reverse dandruff. While both of these may, in fact, play out--the DRG has thus far held it's 200-day--I'm cleaning up my sheets to a few cores on both sides of my T-ledger. I suppose the disconnect in our approaches, if we can call it that, is one of time horizon and I reserve the right to nibble anew if my fancy is tickled.

  • We noted (early yesterday) that stochastic sell signals began to emerge in the housing complex. While they began to slip in synch, please remember that HGX 263.50 is double secret support (50- and 200-day moving averages).

  • Some Buzz from this morning (10:14)

    Turnaround, Every now and then I get a little bit nervous that the best of all the years have gone by...

    I hear ya, Bonnie Tyler, the bipolar stroller has flipped the switch nary a half hour out of today's gate. While energy and metals continue their quest for next-gen leadership, the rest of their equity brethren have lost their bright eyes. Breadth is now 9:5 negative, the semis are slippy (-60 bips) and the small caps are experiencing a George Costanza style shrinkage (RLX - 40 bips).

    It's still uber-early, Minyans, so keep that probability spectrum open. For my part, I'm watchin' the financials like a hawk as they lead us higher. With Merrill, Morgan and Goldman pretty in pink (don't blink), any sloppy slippage by the piggies would bode well for Boo. They're stochastics are still twisty overbought, we know, and in the interest of forthright disclosure, I'm still involved on the short side (vs. a spate of situational longs). And, while I have you, I might as well share that I'm adding to my SunMicro position to put away for a sunny day.

    Keep S&P 1295 on ye radar, my friends, as that's the level of lore for bovine galore. And please, Joel, get off the babysitter. Ever since Rebecca DeMornay rocked the cradle, the whole fantasy lost alotta luster.

    As always, I hope this finds you well.

  • S&P 1295 fell by the wayside and the Minx slipped faster than a Bonnie Tyler tune on the charts. Some Minyans pinged to ask me if that level was "responsible" for the downdraft and I'll say "yes and no." Yes, in that alotta sell stops were set below that zone and, once triggered, they ushered in a spate of supply. And no, in that technicals are but one of four primary metrics and there are plenty of other catalysts to factor in.

  • The metals have been en fuego of late but the XAU couldn't find its way into Matador City yesterday. Telling? Potentially and, again, this discussion must be had in the context of time horizon. With that said, a loyal Minyan posed the question yesterday "If Gold $600 can't light a fire under these shares, what will?" It's a valid muse, my friend, and one that we'll watch unfold together. With the XAU currently up 70 bips--and the underlying metals starting to slip a bit, we may not have to wait long to find out.

  • This week, on As The Wind Turns....

  • Once upon a time, there was a media oligopoly that shaped the way Americans viewed the world. As most folks are conditioned to believe what they read in papers, see on TV or hear on the radio, a handful of media moguls shaped the collective mindset. That dynamic is slowly changing as the internet democratizes information around the world. While the credibility of content remains the clear caveat, the decentralization of information will forever change the psychological landscape of the world.

  • I snuck in a $5 bid for some SunMicro and got hit faster than Austin Power's five. I'm in "scale mode" on this puppy and I understand that I may experience a bit of pain before potential pleasure. Such is the nature of the beast and, thus far, my short piggies are making up for my other pokes.

  • While I linked Pepe's assimilation of DeMark indicators already, it's worthy of another noodle as we ready for a fresh set of earnings.

  • "Yesterday's action has taken the cumulative breadth indicator below the first trendline (from last autumn). In the broader scheme, this 'minor' trendline break might not mean a lot. But, combined with the rate action for the 10-year, the breadth weakness says it's a good idea to get a little more defensive here." Natexis Bleichroeder's talented technician (and MIM3 panelist) John Roque.

  • In what can only be described as saucy serendipity, it looks like MVHQ will be opening the doors to MIM3 while I'm spending some down time with my family in Baltimore . You'll be jacked to see the line-up and pleased to know that we're still working on a few gorillas to join us in Vail. My only concern? Space is somewhat limited, so if ya wanna mingle in the mountains, please take advantage of the uber-early bird specials and lock your spot.

  • And finally, for the non-Buzzers among us, lemme take this time to wish you a very happy and healthy holiday stretch. I'll be out of the 'Ville and enjoying the rest of this week with my family in Baltimore . Be mindful, think positive and trade to win. We've got a lot to look forward to, we simply need to stay disciplined and determined if we plan to get there.

  • Fare ye well.

  • R.P.
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Position in SUNW, financials
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