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Random Thoughts


Maybe nobody will notice that the fixed income jig is skewing the equity internals!


  • While enjoying some quiet time at home this weekend, my mojo sprung to life when Jerry Garcia's rendition of Shining Star suddenly started blasting from my speakers. I walked into my living room to find Zoë sitting near the stereo with a sparkle in her eye and a jig in her step.

  • Ay Caramba! Instructions for life.

  • I've still got two legs in the fur (50% conviction on the short-side) although I'm not sure that it's today's trade. I continue to sense that today's trade will be more posturing than positioning.

  • The four questions posed by uber-Minyan John Roque of Natexis Bleichroeder: 1) How can the market rally big with the Mount Rushmore of financials acting so poorly? 2) How can the small cap stock out performance relative to big cap trade reverse in favor of big caps if stocks like Wal-Mart (WMT), AIG (AIG), Citigroup (C), Freddie Mac (FRE), Fannie Mae (FNM), Microsoft (MSFT), Verizon (VZ), Coca-Cola (KO), American Express (AXP) and Anheuser-Busch (BUD) are weak to bearish? 3) Nearly everyone we speak with feels good about the market owing to strong earnings, low inflation, the M&A cycle, still low interest rates, oversold daily readings for the major indexes and the contrary applications of "headline" risk from AIG and General Motors (GM). If all of these things are bullish then how come (a) nobody's making any money and (b) weekly momentum continues to deteriorate? 4) If we're still in a "bull market" then former leaders like Nike (NKE), Starbucks (SBUX), Chicago Merc (CME), Sherwin Williams (SHW) and Bear Stearns (BSC) should be able to hold on pullbacks at/near their upward sloping 200-day moving averages.

  • True wealth can never be measured by the size of one's wallet.

  • The other side of isolation.

  • The most bullish thing on my screen? The sticky green piggies. The most bearish? The nosty, nosty breadth.

  • Please note that the brokers are back at the all-important XBD 144 level.

  • How much for that tie-dye yarn please?

  • There's a ton on the radar this week so please use your down time effectively. In a few short days, time will be trading at a premium.

  • "We are disturbed with the stock market's action in the near term given the extreme oversold condition of a few weeks ago that should have produced at least a tradable "throwback" rally. Yet, that has not happened as the oversold condition has been worked-off by the DJIA's sideways movement. Moreover, the retail sector is breaking down, the transports are breaking down, the autos are breaking down, the CRB Index (Commodities) is breaking down...well, we know old traders and we know bold traders, but we know no old bold traders. We, therefore, continue to manage the risk and keep our losses small." Jeff "as good as it gets" Saut of Raymond James.

  • The V-Man Cometh! Minyanville would like to officially welcome Vitaliy Katsenelson to the critter fold. He brings a longer-term, fundamentally driven approach to the mix and we look forward to a longstanding and mutually beneficial relationship. To read his vibe in today's FT, please click here!

  • "It is important to note how much worse acting the RTY and NASDAQ indices are here. If asset deflation is in fact what is being "telegraphed" by the complexity models at the March 7th peaks, then those higher beta (higher risk) indices should lead the way down." Scotto Reamer on today's Buzz.

  • Imagine the surprise when she gave birth to a bouncing baby gorilla!

  • "The Web makes the case for branding more than directly than any packaged good or consumer product ever could. So how do you know which sites are worth visiting? The answer: branding. The sites you go back to are sites you trust...the brand is the promise of the value you receive." Excerpt from William Safire's column in this weekend's NYT magazine.

  • Please see the stealth snappage in fixed income as we wade our way through a quiet day.

  • If you do get your paws on the NYT Sunday magazine, please check out the cover article on the evolution of advertising and the convergence of platforms.

  • The Minx is trying to mount a Monday hug as we digest the morning probe and ready ourselves for Elmer, expiration and earnings. If you're watching the breadth as an uber-tell (as I am), please note that the fixed income jig is likely skewing those readings a bit.

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