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Random Thoughts


Keep a close eye on the tape...

  • Citi $48 is back in the front and center headlights.

  • "At 4.96%, the 10 Year Treasury Yield is above its 24-year downward sloping trendline, it's above its upward sloping 10 and 40 week moving averages, it's above its flattening 50-month moving average, and our weekly and monthly momentum indicators are accelerating upward. We're sticking with our 6% target." Uber-Minyan (and MIM3 panelist) John Roque of Natexis Bleichroeder

  • S's over N's (financials over semis) as we edge into the first of our four session set.

  • I'm keeping a close eye on SunMicro as it dips a dime on chatter that their revenues will be light. As this isn't an "earnings play" for me, I'm gonna add some more long side exposure if and when the stock ebbs towards $5 again. So you know...

  • The Utes (what's a Ute?) are trying to find some footing near the November lows.

  • Is that is a double top in the NDX?

  • That must be some kinda lucky foot!

  • I penned on the out-of-the-gate Buzz that I expected some testage after the sloppy slippiness on Freaky Friday. The quicker the probe lower arrives, the higher the probability that Hoofy has a better afternoon. The wildcard, of course, is the defense mechanism at S&P 1295. You just know that Hoofy is gonna try to defend that level and stave off psychology (and technical) shiftage.

  • Morgan Stanley technician Rick Bensignor is out with a note this morning saying that "the increase in monthly counter-trend sell signals based on DeMark indicators (which will be featured, again, during afternoon sessions at MIM3 with Mr. DeMark himself), along with historically important cycles which are being stretched, seems to indicate that reversals in the ongoing uptrend could be likely."

  • The stochastics in the HGX are about to register a sell signal. They're not snazzy timers, as we know, but it's worthy of a mention.

  • For all ye faithful asking for a Friday night Bobby set list, here it is: I: Truckin > Take Me to the River > Loser, Easy to Slip > Supplication Jam > Dark Star, Tuesday Blues > Scarlet Begonias > Iko Iko. II: Masterpiece>Candyman, Masters of War, Even So> October Queen> The Deep End> Lady with a Fan> Terrapin> Black Peter>St. Stephen> William Tell Bridge> The Eleven> Touch of Grey. E: At a Siding> Terrapin Flyer.

  • The standout action of the session? It's gotta be the continued jig in the metal complex as silver tacks on close to 3% and gold tickles $600 anew. Again, while I love 'em long-term, I've peeled out of my exposure to this group for the time being (and that 'time' may be wrong.)

  • Continued white light to our good friend, Minyan Gerry Vos.

  • Congrats, Mr. Mickelson, it's wins like this that make the hole you lost to President Fish a bit easier to stomach!

  • Nice catch--but I'm sure he's got a golden parachute in place.

  • The Bush Administration, while publicly advocating diplomacy in order to stop Iran from pursuing a nuclear weapon, has increased clandestine activities inside Iran and intensified planning for a possible major attack, the New Yorker reported in an article posted on its Web site this weekend.

  • R.P.
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