Have yourself a peaceful night!
You can spend all your time making money
You can spend all your love making time
If it all fell to pieces tomorrow
Would you still be mine?
Alright, if you took Mel Gibson from Conspiracy Theory, Geoffrey Rush from Shine and John Nash from A Beautiful Mind, wrap 'em all together, add a dose of metaphorical lunacy and pack an extra ten pounds on 'em, you'll get an idea of where I stand right now. Honestly -- it's standing room only in my town meeting and it's starting to freak me out a bit!
I'm gonna leave the conspiracy theories alone (for now) and, hopefully, they'll leave me alone for a while too! The Minx is at an important juncture and we owe her the respect of our undivided attention. Think about it: next week is earning's galore, Passover (thin tape), Good Friday (market closed) AND expiration. Toss into the mix a dose of geopolitical uncertainty and whippy markets and, well, we'd better get our rest this weekend!
I can't (and won't) tell you what the market WILL do (nobody can), but I will always offer my honest input as we collectively navigate this muck. The truth is that I sense I'm gonna regret not being fully suited up (in the fur) by the time we get to where we need to go. I'm (humbly) getting "that" feeling again and while intuition has served me in good stead over the years, I am admittedly doing a bit less due to the (unknown) force of the structural metric. As such, I'll hop home with one leg in my costume and lotsa cookies in my belly.
Still, I'm viewing the sub-30 VIX as an opportunity and I've accumulated a smattering of May puts in a handful of financials, some retailers, a few consumers and a lil' tech. My biggest issue remains one of timing but, as a smart cookie once said, you can pick the direction or you can pick the timing but you'll rarely nail both. I'm allowing for another spurt higher and if I don't get it, I'm well represented. If I do, I plan on adding to my positions. So you know -- and if you care!
Beeks will fly by tomorrow morning and drop off the producer price index (expected at .3%, ex-food/energy 0%), advanced retail sales (expected at .6%) and the true blue confidence number (expected at 79). You can bet that traders will be anxiously scanning for clues -- any clues -- so please understand that these releases may impact the price action, and factor that into your overnight risk profile.
Today's session was much ado about nuttin', honey and it's important that we try not to bleed on days we don't battle. That's easier said than done, but patience and discipline are the first steps to achieving that desired objective. If you haven't noticed by now, the trading ranks are much thinner than they were a few years back and, unfortunately, it's likely gonna get worse before it gets better.
Alas, that's a conversation for another time as we must continue to take our arduous journey one step at a time. Inherent in that approach is the ability to find balance and perspective along the way. I'll admit that I'm still learning it as I go but, hopefully, we'll all find our way to better times and easier tapes. We just gotta think positive.
Have a peaceful night.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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