If you are day-trading from the long side, you can always lean against support.
A broom is drearily sweeping
Up the broken pieces of yesterday's life
Somewhere a queen is weeping
Somewhere a king has no wife
Alright, mea culpa on some pop quiz confusion. Jimmy Brown went to Manhasset High School in Long Island and was one of the best lacrosse players of all time. He did, however, play basketball (among other sports) and as such, I've gotta give it up to the first correct answer. Congrat's to Minyan Nicholas J. Montagnese on his free Minyanville Tee!
A couple of observations from the front lines. The dollar (DXY) is softer today but is currently sitting on it's up trendline from the March lows (Bloomberg users type DXY (index) GP). That, coupled with double-secret support in the S&P (860) and the NDX (1020) is giving Hoofy a leg to stand on as we edge our way through a slow Thursday session.
I've been sniffing around to see if I can find the big collar that was floating around yesterday (in the S&P) but thus far I've come up with bupkis. Regardless, there's clearly been supply in the marketplace this week and the question is whether it's the natural ebb to the previous flow or the beginning of a shift in market equilibrium. While hindsight will surely provide clarity, we're faced with the difficult decision of what to do now. Here's what I'm thinking.
I'm having a weird sense of vuja de right now as we waffle through this session. I remember how we correctly identified the rally potential after the 50% pullback following the war spike. I chose, at the time, to cover up rather than get long because I saw "why" traders would buy it but didn't necessarily believe in it. I'm getting the same vibe now and, as such, I want to walk through my strategy.
As a function of the above mentioned support zones, Hoofy's heroes MAY emerge and attempt to trigger an upside stampede. However, I STILL want to use higher prices to build May put exposure and fade the rallies. I remain unsure of the timing and I'm uber-respectful of the structural elements (that continue to drive the market), but I still smell lots of hope. And if there's been one consistent money-making approach over the past few years, it's been to sell hope and buy despair.
Please understand that this strategy doesn't dictate standing at a level and blindly making a bet. I've been trading around my bias and attempting to use price to my advantage. All the while, I'm looking for situations (both ways) in individual names, defining my risk (via options or stops) and allowing for a margin of error. A'ight?
On a personal note, I owe a huge thank you to the entire Minyanville team for their tireless work around the clock. Each and every person involved with this project has given above and beyond in an effort to achieve the greater good. Casey, Tony, Len, Judith, Dan, Charlotte-Anne, Brian, JB, Debra, Kathy, Allan, Jules and (ugh) Fokker -- none of this would be possible without you guys. And for that, we all owe you a "Wasabi!"
As always, I hope this finds you well.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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