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Fool's Day Morning Randoms



  • Todd picked a great day to be away from the screens...

    • Unemployment rate for March came in at 5.2% vs 5.3% exp.

    • Average hourly earnings m/m for March came in at 0.3% vs 0.2% exp; Average hourly earnings y/y for March came in at 2.6% vs 2.5% exp.

    • Change in non-farm payrolls for March came in at 110k vs 220k exp; Change in manufacturing payrolls for March came in at -8k vs 8k exp.

    • Average weekly hours for March came in at 33.7vs 33.7 exp.

      9:45 U of Michigan confidence (Mar): 92.5 exp

      10:00 Construction spending m/m (Feb): 0.6% exp
      ISM manufacturing (Mar): 55.0 exp
      ISM prices paid (Mar): 65.9 exp

  • As traders digest the slew of economic data today, take a look at Brian Reynold's Payroll Playbook and his follow up to the data. The road signs continue to suggest closely following the initial move in equities and more importantly, the resulting digestion by the corporate market / the action in General Motors (GM).

  • "A prominant "financial journalist" just called the employment numbers "very healthy" on TV. This should be a comedy show if it weren't so sad.

    Last month's employment number was adjusted downward, manufacturing jobs were low, and this month's employment number was simply a big miss. This month's birth/death model adjustment was a high +179,000, so the actual number could have been negative.

    The economy is "muddling" along at best. To call these numbers "very healthy" is pure fiction. " - John Succo on the Buzz

  • Levels on the radar: SOX 420, NDX 1482, XBD 144, HGX 480

  • "Toddo felt that a weak number would fuel the stagflation flames - probably not today's business if the 10-year holds these gains through the day." - Minyan T

  • Interesting read on GM

  • Germany at 12% unemployment while France at a 5 year high for unemployment. Japanese teetering on recession and business confidence falling this morning (lowest in a year). European manufacturing weak. Where do you think money that flows out of Europe and Asia go? It certainly didn't show up in the AMG data from last night but something to consider.

  • Are Delphi (DPH) and Elan (ELN) in a race to zero?

  • What other financial websites / resources do you use everyday and why?

  • Thanks to Sal Morreale (of Cantor fame) and his son for an excellent time at Rosa. One of the biggest rewards I've found during my time here at Minyanville is the people I've met. And as Big Sal pointed out, it doesn't matter how many machines you have on a trading desk - this will always be a business about relationships.

  • House price dip in UK "worst in decade"

  • I thought Todd's piece about Mother Morgan was some of his finest writing in recent memory. I don't know about you but I'd like to see more of that about his experience (I certainly know where he stands on his big picture macro view).

As it relates to Morgan specifically, I agree that what we're seeing is the fallout of trying to force together a couple of very different organization cultures and further evidence that mergers usually don't work.

  • April 1st stat check

  • "Insiders at regional banks have been gun shy about purchasing shares of their banks recently, according to Thomson Financial . . . 'There's a lack of [insiders risking their own money,' [Thomson Financial analyst Marc] LoPresti says. 'Their desire to sink more of their capital is curtailing.' LoPresti also points out that there's a higher proportion of regional bank insiders who are selling this month compared to the monthly average for the past 15 months. There are seven sellers for every 10 buyers this month, compared to only five sellers for every 10 buyers during the past 15 months." - Barrons Inside Scoop, March 31, 2005

  • I think the same may be true of Kangaroos

  • Strong ARM-ed

  • Good Luck!

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