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Tell Tale

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Fare ye well!

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So, so you think you can tell
Heaven from Hell? Blue skies from pain?
Can you tell a green field from a cold steel rail?
A smile from a veil? Do you think you can tell?


(Pink Floyd)


The afternoon trip has picked up some zip as traders grab hold and tighten their grip. I returned from my midday mind meld to find the critters grazing on a host of green fields. The financials (Citigroup (C:NYSE)), semis (KLA-Tencor (KLAC:NASD)), small caps and cyclicals all trade firmer than a college cheerleader. Heck, even Fannie sidestepped its earlier spankin' and administered yet another equity enema. What's it all mean? Come with me as we chill in the 'Ville and walk through the zoo.

One of two things is happening here. Maybe the Minx is bustin' at the seams and, once tomorrow's unknown passes, there will be little left to stop her. The piggies and chips support that view (as does the breadth) and a whole lotta shorts have now licked their wounds and headed for the hills (it's safer there). The pure "eyes" see the constructive action building momentum and while you may not agree with it, you gotta respect it.

The other scenario is that we're still in the throws of resistance and short-term sentiment is frothy. As such, and despite today's jig, the tape remains vulnerable both into the close and after tomorrow's orange crop report. Hard to imagine, I know, but this could be the shake out before the return trip to Red Dye Junction. Assign whatever probability you choose, my friends, but understand that it's one of the possible outcomes.

Understand that there is a fair amount of 'gap risk' in tomorrow's number. Further, and just to add spice to the Minxy mix, it's an uber-crowded event. A huge outlier either way prolly tilts the scale but marginal differentials will be lurky and murky. Professor Reynolds wrote a fine road map and I encourage all Minyans to read it before the closing bell. For my part, and just so you know, I'm small (and defined) potatoes with a short bias. It remains to be seen if my positions get mashed, fried, baked or peeled.

I'm gonna flip lids and tickle ticks as we dance towards the closing bell. I will simply ask that you remain lucid and disciplined while leaving a margin for error. And no matter what happens tomorrow--whether the S&P is at 1000 or 1300--don't look back and kick yourself for not being bigger, smaller or there at all. We gotta base our decisions on what we know and see right now so leave the wouldas, couldas and shouldas to the other guys. It's wasted energy.

As always, I hope this finds you well.

R.P.
position in fnm, qqq

Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at todd@minyanville.com.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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