It's about time!
Because you had to be a big shot, didn't you
You had to prove it to the crowd
You had to be a big shot, didn't you
All your friends were so knocked out
My fellow Minyans,
What I'm about to say isn't easy. Throughout my years on this medium, I've communicated, right or wrong, what I thought, saw, heard and felt. There's no fibbin' in the 'Ville--if nothing else, we've come to pride ourselves on honesty and forthright communication. That's what makes what I'm about to say entirely more difficult. Still-and as much as it hurts--I have a responsibility to ye faithful to fess up and tell it like it is.
This will probably come as a huge shocker to longtime Minyans, but I am reversing my stance and adopting a constructive tone on the world markets. It's been a long, hard ride in the bear camp and Boo and I share the battle wounds to prove it. Sometimes a good "call" is intoxicating and you get caught up in the moment. Such was the case at NASDAQ 5,000 when it felt so right it could never be wrong. What I found--quite painfully, I might add--was that the difference between being early and being wrong is the ability to see a trade through to fruition.
I didn't believe that a coordinated agenda could be so commanding as to tilt the capitalist system. I have come to realize that the Federal Reserve possesses the power to entrance us and paint rose colored glasses on the eyes of the world. Japan not only bought dollars (and debt), they bought time. And it's that time that allows the global spider web a chance to untangle. Sure it's a mess--we all know that--but if the fly never gets caught, he'll flutter away none the wiser.
I would like to address my former contention that the bubble trouble was intertwined. I mistakenly felt that debt, derivatives, psychology, housing and the dollar were all waiting to burst. In the doomsday scenario, they dominoed lower and face-planted the Minx into single digit multiples. But I under-anticipated the power of the people--both consumer spending and resolve--when juxtaposed against the loose reins of monetary policy and fiscal stimulus.
It's a perpetual paradigm, where the nay sayers find fault at every turn and newfound levels. But what the ursine fail to see is the beauty of it all--that it grows as a function of participation. There will always be a new neighbor or future generation and the sooner folks believe, the faster the monster will become a friend. I used to think that was a bad thing, but the journey itself is more important that the destination. For by the time we reach Red Dye Junction, there will still be plenty of gas left in the tank.
Alan Greenspan and Franklin Raines, I salute you. Against all odds and over considerable hurdles, you are manufacturing a soft unwind. Fannie Mae (FNM:NYSE) IS too big to fail--and you know that--so you gently deflated the nuclear pressure. Debt, quite obviously, is the new currency that serves to balance gold, the dollar and other competing classes. The strength in commodities is, at its most basic level, proof positive that demand dominates the financial equilibrium. And in the virtual world, who really cares about manufacturing?
I would like to take a moment to apologize to the Minyanship for the misdirection. For this column is penned with forked tongue and twisted fingers. No, I don't subscribe to the view you just read but I felt compelled to paint the prevalent tide. It is, after all, April 1 and we're allowed to be just a little silly. You come to the 'Ville each day to learn, see, be and grow and it doesn't always have to be about the markets. Think to yourself--how quickly were you to subscribe to the sunny vision. For at the end of the day, the light can indeed be blinding.
April Fool's, Mon Frere, and have a fantastic day.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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