Breakouts and Outbreaks
By Todd Harrison Apr 01, 2003 3:40 pm
From our family to yours -- please be safe and healthy.
Casey Schuler: I hate this bug
Colonel Sam Daniels: Oh come on Casey. You have to admire it's simplicity. It's one billionth our size and it's beating us.
Casey Schuler: So,what do you want to do, take it to dinner?
Colonel Sam Daniels: No
Casey Schuler: What then?
Colonel Sam Daniels: Kill it.
Can you imagine being on that American Airlines plane right now? I'm telling you Minyans, and I pray that I'm wrong -- this SARS is no joke. The most probable outcome is that this virus will be contained but, just as we did with the war outcomes, we must factor in potential scenarios as well. As I watch CNN report new cases in Massachusetts and Ontario, I'm hoping for the best -- trust me -- but respecting the power of a potential panic.
I had the bear costume in hand when the S&P filled the gap (860ish) but I didn't pull the metaphorical trigger. I traded it that way, but when the closing bell tolls, I'm only gonna take home some QQQ out-of-the-money puts and a few "situational" longs. Again, I'm not offering advice in how to craft YOUR risk profile; I'm simply sharing mine with hopes that it adds value.
We'll get Circuit City (CC:NYSE) earnings and factory orders (expected: -.8%) before tomorrow's opening, Dell (DELL:Nasdaq) and GE (GE:NYSE)meetings during the day and conferences from Monty (consumer) and Deutsche Bank (basic industries) scattered throughout Hump Day. Still, it's pretty clear that the macro news and vehicles (dollar, crude, bonds) are guiding equities and that will likely continue in the near term.
Heading into the home stretch, the NYSE breadth never blinked (2:1 positive) and that's a sturdy showing (thus far) by the big board. The Nazz never found it's relative mojo and while it's still got a green screen, it's something to monitor as we edge forward and find our way. As it stands, the great debate continues to rage and only time will tell if this was a healthy pullback (cough, cough) or the natural ebb to the downside flow.
More importantly, take the time to enjoy your loved ones tonight. Maybe I'm a walking freak show but I am scared schvitzless of sights (and bugs) unseen. Am I being a sensitive Sally? I hope I am. But I'm not taking anything for granted these days (least of all time with my family). Look at it this way: If the world downticks, you've logged some quality time with the fam. If the world upticks, you've logged some quality time with the fam. Sounds like a winning trade to me.
Have a peaceful night.
position in qqq
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