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Random Thoughts...


Raise your hand if you wanna declare today a draw, start the weekend now and figure this all out on Monday!

  • Goldman, Lehman, Merrill and Morgan are all flirting with Matador City ahead of the bevy of brokerage earnings next week (and despite the continued sub-prime carnage). IF this group can catch a bid (on top of 2:1 NYSE internals), the bovine will have the benefit of today's doubt. How you play---trying to catch it or scale (read: sell) into it--is purely a function of your time horizon and risk profile.

  • Me? I'm sitting tight and "trading around" a short bias. That, and listening to Petty. Gotta love Petty

  • Do you think that squirrels think the word "squirrely" is a complement.

  • The chatter, as you know, is that New Century (NEW) is gonna go belly up. I have no edge or insight but, for my money, it certainly wouldn't shock me. THE question is one of contagion vs. containment. That's why watching the financials is oh-so-very important.

  • Speaking of small and furry critters, Minyan Geoff Garbacz is talking alotta junk about his Wisconsin Badgers. March Madness, gotta love it.

  • Raise your hand if you wanna declare today a draw, start the weekend now and figure this all out on Monday!

  • "My thought is that a buy of nearer term option paper today, with volatility higher than it was 1, 2, 3 month's ago makes way more sense than a buy then and a finger cross that they work before they expire. I would also note that option ownership does not necessarily HAVE to be a downside bet, it's a *bet* on volatility. It can involve replacing stock with calls for example." Adam Warner on yesterday's Buzz.

  • Will everyone please take a moment and remember how it felt to be overexposed during the downdraft?

  • The way to build a growth company is by surrounding yourself with people who can themselves grow.

  • If you didn't have ANY exposure on, what would you think of the tape here?

  • As discussed, I've taken advantage of the 36% pullback in the VXO by adding a slab of puts (against a spate of core longs). The risk, for those long vol, is the potential for "gap fillage," which would take the VXO to 11. Just seeing both sides, Mon Frere.

Mini-Minyan Mailbag

Toddo, Pardon my confusion, but IF (big if) equities deflate (go lower) your theme is that the dollar (DK/Y) will increase (rise) or decrease (fall)? My understanding is that DK/Y will rise.

True? Thanks for your opinion. Minyan Roland

Minyan Roland with the Homies,

Yes. In a deflationary environment, the dollar should rise as asset classes deflate and folks scramble to repay debt. We've been dancing with this thesis for a few years, pointing to the 30% decline in the greenback as the "other side" of the global reflation.

Few in our country grasp this but mark my words, the rest of the world (denominated in dollars) is acutely aware of this dynamic.

Keep in mind that both the dollar and asset classes can conceivably trade lower. I'll humbly offer that they can't both rally, at least for a sustained period of time.

Deep breaths as we bring it in for a landing today. We've got a lot to be thankful for, such as:

  • March Madness
  • Pets.
  • Music.
  • Peanut M&M's.
  • Spring.
  • Pink cashmere sweaters (not me).
  • Lessons.
  • Friendships.
  • Short Ribs.
  • Animated Critters.
  • The lack of escalation (thus far) in the Middle East.
  • Cold sheets and warm comforters.
  • Jack Bauer.
  • Extra loops on our belt.
  • The ability to wake up tomorrow and live our lives a little bit better than we did today.


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Positions in financials, S&P
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