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Random Thoughts

By

Let's go crimson!

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  • The Lehman upgrade of SunMicro (+5%) is music to my ears but my missed (partial) punt on IBM (the put side of my pairs trade) will likely cost me some coin.

  • And so will the fact that I laid 2 points to Succo on yesterday's SU-Cinci game. All orange eyes turn to today's match-up with the land's top ranked UCONN Huskie squad.

  • Google gaggles and they all fall down? We asked that question this morning and opined that if the breadth faltered, it could very well quell the swell. The stock has since dipped a finski ($5) and the internals have balanced substantially (NDX breadth is flat).

  • I've always been of the mindset that negative energy is wasted energy. Yet, I'm still surprised when I see the acrimony that invariably exists in our industry. You won't see that in the 'Ville. Not now, not ever and not on my watch.

  • The single best conversation overheard while at Syracuse for our lectures:

    • President Fish: I graduated in '90. You must have been, what, in fourth or fifth grade?
    • Young Student: No, actually I was in kindergarten at the time!

  • If you Googled "textbook head & shoulders pattern," you would prolly find a four month chart of the NDX.

  • Fur Balls! (11:50 am) By Boo the Bear



    Hey Hoofy, while you're enjoying the fruits of your manual labor, I'll note that Google is getting gaggled (-$5), the HGX is rolling, rolling, rolling over and the piggies are wafflin' a bit as we edge to our daily hump.

    I see the 2:1 breadth and, as Toddo noted, that's a feather in your cap. But as you're A.D.D (just like me), I'll remind you that the internals were nosty yesterday before Snapper saved the day. Yes, they sometimes laggards, so respect--don't defer--to any single tell. And please pass my Daisy's phone number--I've got some thoughts on mutual homogenization that she may wanna hear.

  • According to a Florida television station (Central Florida 13), NASA today at around 2 p.m. will make a major announcement concerning a potential discovery by NASA's Cassini spacecraft related to potential life in our solar system. Ellie Arroway has been dispatched to the scene.

  • "According to traditional PnF indicators, market and sector risk is very high. In addition, when I review DeMark TD-Sequential and TD-Combo indicators on long-term monthly charts, I see potential setups and signals that are nearer long-term buying exhaustion points across most sectors and indices. On a monthly basis, there are 13s (sell) active in the SPX, NDX, HGX, XBD, UTIL, CYC, TRAN, CRB Index and a 12 in the INDU, to name just a few. That does not mean things will collapse from here, and these can be "active" for months before a move completes or possibly even "resets." But occurring as they are in so many indices and sectors simultaneously, it does, in my opinion, raise the probabilities that we are nearing an important inflection point." Pepe Depew on today's Buzz

  • Japan's decision (overnight) not to lift rates put an initial bid to global markets. That's faded a bit as it's clear that their uber-easy policy is on her last legs.

  • Continue to watch CRB 320, Mon Frere, as this toggle will be telling on multiple fronts.

  • As discussed in my opener, I'm balancing the "top is in" vibes with the variable that is timing. If you haven't sneaked a peak, it's a good (quick) read.

  • Have you ever gotten off the wrong exit and ended up in a bad neighborhood? That's exactly where the homies will be if they can't hold HGX 250.

  • National Semi (-2%) has flipped the chip shtick in midday trade.

  • I still think Intel $20 and IBM $80 will act as magnets into next Friday's expiration.

  • My gym called to tell me that my membership expired two months ago. You would think that I knew that, but we, er, I didn't.

  • I made some serendipitous sales in the metals on January 30 (XAU 150). While it's unrealistic to think that I can catch a cusp the other way, my antennae are up on the buy side.

  • I was at dinner last night with some old friends and offered that my mind was "admittedly and regrettably preoccupied. And as I'm a big believer in the here and now, I find myself mired in hypocrisy more often than not." Why do I share this? Because our journey is paved with potholes as we find our way to a mindful existence. It's not always easy but, by definition, it's a constant evolution.

  • As always, I hope this finds you well.


    R.P.
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position in sunw, ibm, financials
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