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Morning Rant

By

Have a great day Minyans!!

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  • Zenon Environmental (ZEN CN), the Canadian water play I've been eyeing for several months reported numbers yesterday. In one word: SCARY. Forget the "can they turn the ship around and make money" idea. This outfit is mismanaging itself into a primo financial jam. The more relevant question is what is it worth in a bail-out take-out. Don't have the answer to that . . .yet.

  • The Russell 2000 (IWM) has been under longs liquidations for the better part of the last 4 sessions. However, today it put in the second "bar" of a three "bars" formation which, together with cooperating stochastics, forms one of my favorite trading patterns. Note that the stochastics are not in synch this time. I found this pattern useful in all time frames as long as one keeps the reward expectations in line with the relative range of the specific time frame.

  • Confused about the deflation / stagflation / hyperinflation debate. Here is a pocket size primer.

  • Wind River (WIND) Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal-Year 2006 Financial Results: Financial Outlook...For Fiscal Year 2007, Wind River expects:
    • Revenue to be between $290 million and $300 million.
    • Bookings growth to exceed revenue growth.
    • Earnings per share to be between $0.34 and $0.39 on a GAAP basis.
      This excludes the impact of FAS123R, which could reduce EPS by up to
      $0.25 per share.
      (Emphasis added)

      Based on First Call estimates, that's a meaningful guide down on all fronts. So let me see if I understand the dynamic here: the company misses targets by a mile and gets a 15% haircut after-hours; and for that yeoman job, the executives will collect about 2/3 of all expected GAAP earnings? Seems fair . . .

  • If the corporate sector is supposed to pick up the slack for the indebted-to-my-eyeballs consumer, the reports by Tech Data (TECD) yesterday, and CDW Computers (CDWC) today, are doing a good job of keeping that pick-up a well-guarded secret.

    The fun has just begun Minyans!!
Position in IWM
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