The Buzz on the Buzz
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'Cause I'm a steamroller baby. I'm gonna roll all over you… Whataya say, vuja de? It's been a long time since I've suited up but given my very active opening, I felt that it was both consistent and forthright to put it out there. Besides, we can do anything as long as we're disciplined, right? Here's what I'm thinking as we edge into the Thursday dew:
It's been a while, I know, but I'm dusting off my metaphorical bear costume for a quick schnitz.
Based on my actions on the opening--making a slew of sales and scooping some downside puts--I wanna put my best paw forward for ye faithful. I know, it may be asking a lot considering the three-point plan (and the fact that I'm due to get mushed) but heck, it's what I'm doing so I'll put it out there.
Two legs in the fur--50% conviction on the short side--with a stop above S&P 1415ish.
Engine room, more steam!
'Cause I'm a steamroller baby. I'm gonna roll all over you…
- For starters, both the SPY and QQQQ have rallied (these last few days) on lighter volume. That's not a death knell but it's certainly worth noting.
- I could be wrong (it wouldn't be the first time) but the bovine seem awfully quick to declare an "all clear." Either way, for purposes of this particular try, I'm defining my broader market risk at S&P 1415. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.
- The dollar--which has been a buff contra-indicator--is up nicely this morning. Asset class deflation or dollar devaluation.
- The VXO, which was driving age a few days ago, is back in braces. These sorta vol spikes are rarely isolated.
What scares Boo?
- The crossing (bullish) stochastics.
- Reactive (chasing) traders.
- The tea leaves, as market internals are 4:1 positive, the financials are stronger than a mule's breath(please watch BKX 116 as a level) and the emerging markets (EEM up a deuce).
- My "good feel" so far this week as nobody is smarter than the market.
- That DEBKA is reporting that Hamas has new missiles that will put an additional 250,000 Israelis at risk.
- The fact that my trainer blew me off this morning at 6:00 AM after a shlepped to the gym. Do you think she's trying to tell me something?
Once in a while you get shown the light in the strangest of places if you look at it right...
Alrightee then, we're barely an hour into the session and Hoofy is trying to make an impression.
Through objective eyes, a snapshot of the tea leaves finds the critter compass pointing to the moon,
So, what am I doing wearing fur? Just trading, cookie, with defined risk above S&P 1415 (BKX 116). If I had to point to potential flies in the upside ointment, I would note the Art Carnage in the VXO (-11%), the higher dollar (contra-tell) and the emerging hubris in the mainstream media. Yes, I know that last point isn't actionable, per say, but it's been a pretty good tell.
My "gamma' (puts), so you know, include Aunt Fannie, the S&P and QQQQ. And yes, I'm still lugging Goldenstar (+4%) and SunMicro (+1%) on the long side, which helps offset the fact that I'm (cough) a bit early bangin' with Boo.
Todd Harrison is the founder and Chief Executive Officer of Minyanville. Prior to his current role, Mr. Harrison was President and head trader at a $400 million dollar New York-based hedge fund. Todd welcomes your comments and/or feedback at email@example.com.
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