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Random Thoughts


Given tomorrow's Breakfast with Beeks (payroll data), I don't see the tape running away to the upside today.


Engine Room, More Steam!

Yeah, I know nobody knows
Where it comes and where it goes


  • Monday afternoon, with the markets hugging the flat line, I offered a humble three-point plan (sloppy close, rippin' Turnaround Tuesday rally, resumption of the sell-off). We can put a check next to point one and point two as we wait point three to play itself out.

  • S&P 1400 and NDX 1750---pretty much where we are now, according to the pre-market futures-will go a long way in determining if the third chimes the charm.

  • For my part and with my coin, I rode the rally into Tuesday's close, sold my "rentals" (such as Goldman and other brokers) and balanced my book by buying some "on sale" puts (after the 25% haircut in the VXO).

  • This allowed me to A) hold onto my faves (such as SunMicro and Goldenstar), B) start building some gamma at lower volatility levels (after punting puts into Monday's close) and C) play two-sided situations (alpha bits) rather than one-way tape bets.

  • One of my fresh put adds is daddy's old nemesis, Aunt Fannie, with a stop above FNM $56. Indeed, if the only difference between a mistake and a lesson is the ability to learn from it, I'll consider my multi-year dance with this stock higher education. On the heels of Big Ben's tough talk-which I wholeheartedly agree with-I counted to 100 (by primes and backwards) before getting involved, allowing the stock to squeeze a bit higher before initiating my risk.

  • As I listen to mainstream media bulls take victory laps and say "I told ya so," I can almost see the fur growing through my sleeves. I don't say that with any salt or disrespect---we don't "do" acrimony in the 'Ville--I'm simply paying heed to some thoughts we've recently shared.

  • Given tomorrow's Breakfast with Beeks (payroll data), I don't see the tape running away to the upside today. Factor in our aforementioned levels (S&P 1400, NDX 1750), I may well fade (read: sell) the opening with tight and defined risk. Sometimes right, sometimes wrong, always honest.

Stems and Seeds…

  • George Soros weighs in on the carry trade, cracks in the system and potential war with Iran.

  • Through a pure supply/demand lens, this has to be anecdotally bullish for bullion.

  • Did you see Professor Lance Lewis' "5 Things You Need to Know about Gold?" It's a must read for Minyans.

  • I don't know about you but I take everything Mr. Practical says to heart. He is, quite simply, the sharpest cookie I've ever met.

  • "Dartmouth College costs to rise 4.9% next year. With twins in the frozen north, no matter how many times the Fed tells me inflation is 2%, my inflation rate will trend around ~ 4.9%! So as you say, inflation in what we must buy and deflation in what we want." Minyan Ron

  • Wow, it's cold. Global warming, anyone? Anyone?

  • "Some of us live by the relative game and our performance was deemed superior even though the absolute performance was down 1.5%. Of course, no one can eat negative absolute returns. " Minyan Anonymous

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