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The Bottom Line: Minyanville Oracle Index


I wanna be an oracle too!


"Oh Oracle, we pray to receive thy wisdom and guidance, that it deliver us from our epic journey; beset on all sides by villains yet vanquished, battles yet fought, ships for now unbroken upon the rocks of unknown lands. Tell us, oh Oracle, what should be the fate that awaits us?"
- Unidentified self-described huge oracle fan, circa. 1929

If there is one thing that can truthfully be said to have endured the inexorable progress of time, it is this: Everybody loves a good oracle!

In ancient Greece, no self-respecting warrior would have dreamed of making an important economic decision, or brutal and unprovoked cross-border invasion, without first consulting an oracle. If the King of Thebes had only listened to his oracle, perhaps he could have avoided being viciously murdered by his own son, Oedipus, who would later go on to sleep with his own mother before scratching his eyes out. At the very least, he might have decided against naming his son Oedipus.

Random Greek sculpture downloaded from the
Internet evokes creepy Oedipus-like vibe!

What is it about an oracle that inspires such awe and reverence? Could it be the fancy robes they wear? No, it could not be. Instead, it is their ability to see into, and predict, the future!

People who can accurately predict the future often freak other people out. Especially people who have trouble remembering things that have already happened! Like you, we at Minyanville are also freaked out by people who can predict the future. Who knew? The oracle knew, that's who.

To help us pretend to do science during a somewhat slow market day, we sat down a few minutes ago and constructed what we call the Minyanville Oracle Index. The Minyanville Oracle Index is comprised of a capitalization-weighted* (see chart below) basket of 10 oracles that were carefully selected from among the 10 oracles that immediately came to mind.

Thanks to the Minyanville Oracle Index, stock market technicians will one day be able to accurately predict the future of a basket of oracles who are themselves predicting the future! This could theoretically allow an investor or trader to potentially predict the future of the future itself!

What if I told you that not only could you know the future in advance, but you could also know the future of the future ahead of those who already know the future? Would you consider that to be an advantage in today's highly competitive market environment? I should think so. In fact, thanks to the Minyanville Oracle Index, I don't just think so, I know so. And, several minutes ago I knew that I would know so! And I knew that I would know that too! Yes, I even knew that. I know. Whatever.

The most famous oracle of all time, and the largest weighting in the Minyanville Oracle Index, is the Oracle at Delphi.

1. Oracle at Delphi - Pythia, 28% weighting

Dating back to 1400 B.C. the Oracle at Delphi, known as Pythia, lived in a shrine around a sacred spring near the foot of Mount Parnassus. People came from all over Greece to ask the Oracle at Delphi questions.

The Greeks considered the Delphic Oracle to be the center of the world. This is probably because no one thought to ask her if she was located at the center of the world, because if they had thought to ask , "Hey, are you located at the center of the world?", she, of course, would have replied, "No," because she is an Oracle and so naturally would have known the answer to such a simple question right away. Morevoer, the question "Hey, are you located at the center of the world?" is not even about the future. It's about location, which as Einstein easily proved, exists outside of time in real estate. But I digress.

One funny thing about oracles: The bigger they are, the harder they fall. Several years ago, scientists discovered that the Oracle at Delphi sits above a fault line running east to west. That would be no big deal, except for the fact that the location above the fault line meant the oracle's trancelike behavior was simply the result of constantly inhaling ethylene gas produced from below the surface of the earth. That too would be no big deal, except ethylene gas produces a narcotic effect in those who inhale it. Turns out that what the oracle meant by "predicting the future," was sitting around all day in a temple-like shrine getting high!

Minyanville Oracle Index
* By "capitalization-weighted," we mean random.

Other Minyanville Oracle Index Components and Weightings:

2. Oracle of Omaha - Warren Buffet, 19% weighting

3. Oracle of Moolah - Alan Greenspan, 16% weighting

4. Oracle of HeeHaw - T. Boone Pickens, 10% weighting

5. Oracle of Media - Television's JeffMacke©, 9% weighting

6. Oracle of Aloha - Thomas Magnum, P.I., 4.5% weighting

7. Oracle of Oracle - Larry Ellison, 4.5% weighting

8. Oracle of Booyah - James Cramer, 4% weighting

9. Oracle of Urkel - Jaleel White, 3.5% weighting

10. Oracle of Subpoena - Patrick Byrne, 1.5% weighting

No positions in stocks mentioned.

The information on this website solely reflects the analysis of or opinion about the performance of securities and financial markets by the writers whose articles appear on the site. The views expressed by the writers are not necessarily the views of Minyanville Media, Inc. or members of its management. Nothing contained on the website is intended to constitute a recommendation or advice addressed to an individual investor or category of investors to purchase, sell or hold any security, or to take any action with respect to the prospective movement of the securities markets or to solicit the purchase or sale of any security. Any investment decisions must be made by the reader either individually or in consultation with his or her investment professional. Minyanville writers and staff may trade or hold positions in securities that are discussed in articles appearing on the website. Writers of articles are required to disclose whether they have a position in any stock or fund discussed in an article, but are not permitted to disclose the size or direction of the position. Nothing on this website is intended to solicit business of any kind for a writer's business or fund. Minyanville management and staff as well as contributing writers will not respond to emails or other communications requesting investment advice.

Copyright 2011 Minyanville Media, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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