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Point & Go Figure: April Gold, NEM, UNH, Sensex


Despite the recent move lower, risk is increasing, not decreasing.


Market Overview:

The short-term conditions continue to show larger negative patterns and the high risk levels remain intact suggesting caution. The Percent Above 50-day Moving Average Indicators for both the NYSE and Nasdaq Composite are negative, having formed yet another lower high on their respective charts and exceeded a previous bottom. This sharply increases the probabilities of a move lower of significant degree for related stocks.

The High-Low Index for the NYSE is now negative while the NASDAQ High-Low remains in Xs, but at a high risk level and very close to a reversal down.

The NYSE Percent Above 30-week Moving Average Indicator reversed down yesterday, forming a lower high, and is now within .32% of breaking a previous low. The Nasdaq Composite Percent Above 30-week Moving Average Indicator is within .14% of reversing down.

Meanwhile, the longer-term bullish percent Indices for the NYSE and Nasdaq Composite are both still in Xs, but the larger pattern of lower highs remains intact. Both lost ground yesterday.

Charts of Interest:
April Gold
(Chart courtesy
Dorsey Wright)
In addition to violating the near-term trendline drawn on the PnF chart below, the April Gold contract has broken below a TDST (DeMark TD Setup Trend) line on the daily chart, suggesting this is a key reversal lower.

April Gold
(Chart courtesy Thomson Financial)

Newmont Mining
(Chart courtesy
Although shares of NEM are not yet approaching any TD-Sequential or TD-Combo readings suggesting a halt in the decline, the stock is approaching trendline support on a PnF basis at 48.

United Health (UNH)

(Chart courtesy
In addition to pulling back, holding support, and reversing up on a Pnf basis...

United Health (UNH)
(Chart courtesy Thomson Financial)
...UNH has registered a TD-Sequential 13 buy signal as of yesterday.

Sesenx Index
(Chart courtesy Thomson Financial)
The Sensex shows 13 sell signals on both TD-Sequential and TD-combo on a daily chart. This also coincides with the magazine cover indicators and President Bush's trip to India last week. Interesting.
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